Teams
all 48 sides ranked on our sealed WC Elo · tap through to the squad and the players
The call · our sealed read
FavouriteSpain2210 WC Elo · #1Top of the sealed board, clear, a side worth more than the sum of its names.But, the squad mean (1955) trails the rating by 255. If the system cracks, the names won't bail it out.ChallengerEngland2082 Elo · 1995 squadThe side near the top where rating and names agree, barely 87 between them. No soft spot to pick at.But, it starts behind Spain. It needs the favourite to slip, not just to be good.OutsiderSweden+29 roster gapOnly #37 on Elo, yet a 1794 squad, talent the seeding hasn't priced in.But, the rating's seen something the names haven't. Group F has to go to plan first.
What the numbers flag
Daylight at the top−66 EloSpain and Argentina, then a 66-point cliff to France. A two-horse board, not a top three.
The cruise85% to escapeSwitzerland sit #18 on Elo yet are surer of their group than Morocco (#12, just 69%). The draw, not the ranking.
All system, fewer stars−311 squadIran top the board on rating with a squad grading 311 below it, a side worth more than the sum of its names.
The board · strongest first
2210WC Elo▼ −9 since snapshot99% to advance
- 2188WC Elo▲ +36 since snapshot97%to advanceroster 1934gap −254
- 2122WC Elo▲ +60 since snapshot93%to advanceroster 2007gap −115
- 2082WC Elo▲ +22 since snapshot95%to advanceroster 1995gap −87
- 2068WC Elo▲ +24 since snapshot93%to advanceroster 1974gap −94
- 2063WC Elo▲ +23 since snapshot90%to advanceroster 1770gap −293
- 2027WC Elo▼ −34 since snapshot92%to advanceroster 1785gap −242
- 2027WC Elo▲ +17 since snapshot86%to advanceroster 1942gap −85
- #9 · Group F · contender tier2012WC Elo▲ +36 since snapshot90%to advanceroster 1956gap −56
- 2007WC Elo▼ −8 since snapshot91%to advanceroster 1990gap −17
- 1993WC Elo▲ +1 since snapshot87%to advanceroster 1721gap −272
- 1984WC Elo▲ +37 since snapshot85%to advanceroster 1821gap −163
- 1976WC Elo▲ +37 since snapshot90%to advanceroster not yet
- 1974WC Elo▼ −51 since snapshot88%to advanceroster 1786gap −188
- 1971WC Elo▲ +4 since snapshot87%to advanceroster 1898gap −73
- 1964WC Elo84%to advanceroster 1815gap −149
- 1963WC Elo▼ −45 since snapshot79%to advanceroster 1659gap −304
- #18 · Group B · dark horse tier1960WC Elo▲ +27 since snapshot94%to advanceroster 1766gap −194
- 1956WC Elo▲ +15 since snapshot75%to advanceroster 1752gap −204
- 1920WC Elo▼ −16 since snapshot68%to advanceroster 1773gap −147
- 1918WC Elo▼ −17 since snapshot71%to advanceroster 1698gap −220
- 1904WC Elo▼ −11 since snapshot78%to advanceroster 1593gap −311
- 1902WC Elo▲ +9 since snapshot68%to advanceroster 1591gap −311
- 1895WC Elo▼ −24 since snapshot89%to advanceroster 1663gap −232
- 1894WC Elo▲ +13 since snapshot66%to advanceroster 1753gap −141
- #26 · Group A · dark horse tier1880WC Elo▼ −40 since snapshot79%to advanceroster 1674gap −206
- 1873WC Elo▲ +17 since snapshot61%to advanceroster 1687gap −186
- 1848WC Elo▼ −79 since snapshot67%to advanceroster 1566gap −282
- 1833WC Elo▼ −21 since snapshot60%to advanceroster 1723gap −110
- 1826WC Elo▲ +51 since snapshot52%to advanceroster 1751gap −75
- #31 · Group K · dark horse tier1824WC Elo▼ −92 since snapshot52%to advanceroster 1549gap −275
- #32 · Group E · dark horse tier1814WC Elo▲ +49 since snapshot64%to advanceroster 1750gap −64
- 1810WC Elo▲ +52 since snapshot60%to advanceroster 1647gap −163
- #34 · Group A · long shot tier1796WC Elo▼ −46 since snapshot64%to advanceroster not yet
- 1775WC Elo▼ −55 since snapshot40%to advanceroster 1529gap −246
- 1772WC Elo▲ +47 since snapshot39%to advanceroster 1617gap −155
- 1765WC Elo▲ +41 since snapshot49%to advanceroster 1794gap +29
- 1750WC Elo▼ −78 since snapshot31%to advanceroster 1536gap −214
- 1738WC Elo▼ −78 since snapshot41%to advanceroster 1595gap −143
- #40 · Group G · long shot tier1732WC Elo▼ −44 since snapshot44%to advanceroster 1564gap −168
- 1698WC Elo▼ −40 since snapshot30%to advanceroster 1563gap −135
- #42 · Group H · long shot tier1685WC Elo▲ +19 since snapshot40%to advanceroster 1596gap −89
- #43 · Group A · long shot tier1662WC Elo▲ +31 since snapshot34%to advanceroster 1588gap −74
- #44 · Group H · long shot tier1653WC Elo▲ +48 since snapshot34%to advanceroster 1527gap −126
- #45 · Group B · long shot tier1649WC Elo▲ +39 since snapshot50%to advanceroster 1607gap −42
- 1625WC Elo▲ +61 since snapshot21%to advanceroster 1633gap +8
- 1602WC Elo▼ −6 since snapshot21%to advanceroster 1472gap −130
- 1567WC Elo▼ −24 since snapshot32%to advanceroster 1533gap −34
Sealed 2026-06-10, before a ball was kicked. draw: openfootball (CC0) · ratings: our national Elo from CC0 international results. Roster avg is our roster-Elo squad mean, a shadow signal, it never moves a live call.