JapanWorld Cup forecast
Group F table →Japan should get through
Most likely finish: 1st. Group F: Netherlands, Sweden, Tunisia.
- win Group F
- 40%
- finish 2nd
- 34%
- best 3rd
- 13%
Why 87%?openclose
One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Japan reach the last 32.
runs
20,000
sealed
2026-06-10
venue
neutral
team rating
1993
players
not used
Group games
against Netherlands
rating 2012
35%
win
26%
draw
39%
lose
against Tunisia
rating 1738
64%
win
21%
draw
15%
lose
against Sweden
rating 1765
61%
win
22%
draw
16%
lose
These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.
Deep cuts
- Hardest game: Netherlands, 35% to win.
- Clean route: 74% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
- Rating edge: +116 versus the Group F average.
Recent form
last 5 · 2W 2D 1L- W1–0
- D2–2
- W4–0
- D1–1
- L1–2
8 points from the last 5, 1.60 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.
Goals
last 10scored
19
conceded
7
goal diff
+12
clean sheets
6
Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 6 with a clean sheet. Sourced facts, never simulated.
Players
ratings board →No sourced squad rows for this side yet. The list opens when a dated squad feed lands.
The record
4 calls locked. 2 of 4 graded calls landed right.
- calls made
- 4
- graded
- 4
- called right
- 2/4
The calls
- at Brazilwe called against · 2–1Called it
- v Swedenwe backed them · 1–1Missed it
- at Tunisiawe backed them · 0–4Called it
- at Netherlandswe called against · 2–2Missed it
Context · sourced
- FIFA ranking
- 18thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-07-01
Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.
Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose
Signals
ProofXI rating
1972+10 this year
Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.
World rank
18thheld on the latest list
FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.
Rating moves · per match
World Football Elo- vs BrazilL 1–2 · 2026-06-29-22→ 1972
- vs SwedenD 1–1 · 2026-06-25-17→ 1994
- vs TunisiaW 4–0 · 2026-06-20+16→ 2011
- vs NetherlandsD 2–2 · 2026-06-14+2→ 1995
- v IcelandW 1–0 · 2026-05-31+1→ 1993
- at EnglandW 1–0 · 2026-03-31+16→ 1992
- at ScotlandW 1–0 · 2026-03-28+9→ 1976
- v BoliviaW 3–0 · 2025-11-18+8→ 1967
How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.