Skip to content

Japan

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Group F table →

Japan should get through

87%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 1st. Group F: Netherlands, Sweden, Tunisia.

win Group F
40%
finish 2nd
34%
best 3rd
13%
Why 87%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Japan reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

1993

players

not used

Group games

  • against Netherlands

    rating 2012

    35%

    win

    26%

    draw

    39%

    lose

  • against Tunisia

    rating 1738

    64%

    win

    21%

    draw

    15%

    lose

  • against Sweden

    rating 1765

    61%

    win

    22%

    draw

    16%

    lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

  • Hardest game: Netherlands, 35% to win.
  • Clean route: 74% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
  • Rating edge: +116 versus the Group F average.

Recent form

last 5 · 3W 2D 0L
  • W1–0at England
  • W1–0v Iceland
  • D2–2vs Netherlands
  • W4–0vs Tunisia
  • D1–1vs Sweden

11 points from the last 5, 2.20 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

  • scored

    20

  • conceded

    7

  • goal diff

    +13

  • clean sheets

    6

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 6 with a clean sheet. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →
  • Japan
    H. ItoDefender · 26
    2018quality rating±54 · T2▲ +1
    22 apps · 1472′WC perf −4
  • Japan
    A. TanakaMidfielder · 27
    1866quality rating±51 · T2▲ +11
    32 apps · 1605′WC perf +1
  • Japan
    D. KamadaMidfielder · 29
    1858quality rating±51 · T2▲ +13
    32 apps · 2239′WC perf +3
  • Japan
    R. DoanMidfielder · 27
    1770quality rating±55 · T2▲ +3
    37 apps · 2795′WC perf −2
  • Japan
    K. SanoMidfielder · 25
    1736quality rating±55 · T2▲ +8
    38 apps · 3358′
  • Japan
    A. UedaAttacker · 27
    1719quality rating±55 · T2▲ +10
    39 apps · 3094′
  • Japan
    Y. SugawaraDefender · 25
    1711quality rating±56 · T2
    36 apps · 2636′WC perf −1
  • Japan
    Z. SuzukiGoalkeeper · 23
    1697quality rating±54 · T2▲ +10
    26 apps · 2346′WC perf +1
Full squadopenclose

Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.

The record

4 calls locked. 2 of 4 graded calls landed right.

calls made
4
graded
4
called right
2/4

The calls

  • at Brazilwe called against · 2–1Called it
  • v Swedenwe backed them · 1–1Missed it
  • at Tunisiawe backed them · 0–4Called it
  • at Netherlandswe called against · 2–2Missed it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking
18thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Squad strength

all players →

roster Elo average

1721

19 rated players, 32700 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.

best-rated XI

1770

19469 total / 11

next seven

1666

11661 total / 7

How it can move a forecastopenclose

Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.

When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.

Squad value · our estimate

all players →

€3.2m–€12m

≈ €6.3m · 1 of 19 rated players priced

Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 1, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.

Signals

ProofXI rating

1993+13 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

18thheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo
  • vs SwedenD 1–1 · 2026-06-25-17→ 1994
  • vs TunisiaW 4–0 · 2026-06-20+16→ 2011
  • vs NetherlandsD 2–2 · 2026-06-14+2→ 1995
  • v IcelandW 1–0 · 2026-05-31+1→ 1993
  • at EnglandW 1–0 · 2026-03-31+16→ 1992
  • at ScotlandW 1–0 · 2026-03-28+9→ 1976
  • v BoliviaW 3–0 · 2025-11-18+8→ 1967
  • v GhanaW 2–0 · 2025-11-14+4→ 1959

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.