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the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Group B table →

Qatar need a run

32%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 4th. Group B: Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia & Herzegovina.

win Group B
3%
finish 2nd
11%
best 3rd
18%
Why 32%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Qatar reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

1567

players

not used

Group games

  • against Switzerland

    rating 1960

    8%

    win

    17%

    draw

    75%

    lose

  • against Canada

    rating 1895

    11%

    win

    19%

    draw

    70%

    lose

  • against Bosnia & Herzegovina

    rating 1649

    29%

    win

    25%

    draw

    46%

    lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

  • Hardest game: Switzerland, 8% to win.
  • Clean route: 15% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
  • Rating edge: -201 versus the Group B average.

Recent form

last 5 · 0W 2D 3L
  • L0–1at Republic of Ireland
  • D0–0vs El Salvador
  • D1–1vs Switzerland
  • L0–6at Canada
  • L1–3vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

2 points from the last 5, 0.40 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

  • scored

    6

  • conceded

    19

  • goal diff

    -13

  • clean sheets

    1

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 1 with a clean sheet, 5 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Team news · sourced

Canada 6-0 Qatar: World Cup 2026 – as it happened — Jonathan David scored a hat-trick on an historic night for Canada, but it was soured by an horrific injury to Ismael Koné

theguardian.com · 2026-06-26

A sourced read on availability, picked for relevance and gated fresh. It never touches the call.

Players

ratings board →
  • Qatar
    Edmilson JuniorAttacker · 31
    1613quality rating±52 · T2▼ −13
    14 apps · 856′WC perf +1
  • Qatar
    Akram AfifAttacker · 29
    1574quality rating±56 · T2▼ −21
    29 apps · 2460′WC perf −5
  • Qatar
    G. LayeMidfielder · 27
    1544quality rating±66 · T2▼ −37
    5 apps · 435′WC perf −1
  • Qatar
    Almoez AliAttacker · 29
    1540quality rating±64 · T2▼ −3
    24 apps · 1868′on club + age
  • Qatar
    Sultan Al BraikDefender · 29
    1547quality rating±78 · T2▼ −45
    3 apps · 156′WC perf −2
  • Qatar
    Ahmed Al GanehiAttacker · 25
    1532quality rating±67 · T2▼ −7
    14 apps · 650′WC perf −1
  • Qatar
    Jassem GaberMidfielder · 23
    1537quality rating±73 · T2▼ −26
    5 apps · 287′WC perf −4
  • Qatar
    Boualem KhoukhiDefender · 35
    1512quality rating±55 · T2▼ −10
    20 apps · 1423′WC perf +3
Full squadopenclose

Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.

The record

3 calls locked. 2 of 3 graded calls landed right.

calls made
3
graded
3
called right
2/3

The calls

  • at Bosnia & Herzegovinawe called against · 3–1Called it
  • at Canadawe called against · 6–0Called it
  • v Switzerlandwe called against · 1–1Missed it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking
56thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Squad strength

all players →

roster Elo average

1533

16 rated players, 24523 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.

best-rated XI

1556

17117 total / 11

next seven

1481

7406 total / 5

How it can move a forecastopenclose

Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.

When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.

Signals

ProofXI rating

1569-62 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

56thdown 1 place on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo
  • vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaL 1–3 · 2026-06-24-36→ 1543
  • at CanadaL 0–6 · 2026-06-18-13→ 1578
  • vs SwitzerlandD 1–1 · 2026-06-13+24→ 1591
  • vs El SalvadorD 0–0 · 2026-06-06-2→ 1567
  • at Republic of IrelandL 0–1 · 2026-05-28-3→ 1569
  • v TunisiaL 0–3 · 2025-12-07-23→ 1572
  • v SyriaD 1–1 · 2025-12-04-4→ 1595
  • v PalestineL 0–1 · 2025-12-01-21→ 1599

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.