UzbekistanWorld Cup forecast
Group K table →Uzbekistan are in a fight
Most likely finish: 4th. Group K: Colombia, Portugal, DR Congo.
- win Group K
- 10%
- finish 2nd
- 20%
- best 3rd
- 22%
Why 52%?openclose
One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Uzbekistan reach the last 32.
runs
20,000
sealed
2026-06-10
venue
neutral
team rating
1824
players
not used
Group games
against Colombia
rating 2063
16%
win
22%
draw
62%
lose
against Portugal
rating 2027
18%
win
23%
draw
59%
lose
against DR Congo
rating 1772
43%
win
26%
draw
32%
lose
These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.
Deep cuts
- Hardest game: Colombia, 16% to win.
- Clean route: 29% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
- Rating edge: -97 versus the Group K average.
Recent form
last 5 · 0W 0D 5L- L0–2
- L1–2
- L1–3
- L0–5
- L1–3
0 points from the last 5, 0.00 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.
Goals
last 10scored
10
conceded
18
goal diff
-8
clean sheets
3
Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 3 with a clean sheet, 4 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.
Players
ratings board →- A. KhusanovDefender · 211937quality rating±55 · T2▼ −2029 apps · 2173′WC perf −1
- E. ShomurodovAttacker · 301579quality rating±55 · T2▼ −1741 apps · 3561′WC perf −1
- A. FayzullaevAttacker · 221566quality rating±56 · T2▼ −1630 apps · 1786′
- R. AshurmatovDefender · 291558quality rating±57 · T2▼ −2310 apps · 872′WC perf +1
- A. MozgovoyMidfielder · 261566quality rating±69 · T2▼ −306 apps · 353′
- O. ShukurovMidfielder · 291553quality rating±59 · T2▼ −279 apps · 760′WC perf −1
- K. AlijonovDefender · 281554quality rating±71 · T2▼ −165 apps · 343′WC perf +2
- S. NasrullayevMidfielder · 271551quality rating±65 · T2▼ −347 apps · 504′WC perf −3
Full squadopenclose
- O. Hamrobekov1539
- O. Orunov1540
- D. Khamdamov1547
- A. Ganiyev1545
- J. Urozov1540
- A. Nematov1541
- S. Esanov1545
- I. Sergeev1534
- J. Iskanderov1536
- B. Karimov1519
Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.
The record
3 calls locked. 2 of 3 graded calls landed right.
- calls made
- 3
- graded
- 3
- called right
- 2/3
The calls
- at DR Congowe called a draw · 3–1Missed it
- at Portugalwe called against · 5–0Called it
- v Colombiawe called against · 1–3Called it
Context · sourced
- FIFA ranking
- 50thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29
Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.
Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose
Squad strength
all players →roster Elo average
1549
18 rated players, 27888 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.
best-rated XI
1576
17337 total / 11
next seven
1507
10551 total / 7
How it can move a forecastopenclose
Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.
When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.
Signals
ProofXI rating
1838+19 this year
Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.
World rank
50thheld on the latest list
FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.
Rating moves · per match
World Football Elo- vs DR CongoL 1–3 · 2026-06-27-46→ 1732
- vs PortugalL 0–5 · 2026-06-23-28→ 1778
- vs ColombiaL 1–3 · 2026-06-17-18→ 1806
- vs NetherlandsL 1–2 · 2026-06-08-5→ 1824
- at CanadaL 0–2 · 2026-06-01-9→ 1829
- v VenezuelaD 0–0 · 2026-03-30-5→ 1838
- v GabonW 3–1 · 2026-03-27+4→ 1844
- vs ChinaD 2–2 · 2026-01-26-7→ 1840
How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.