PanamaWorld Cup forecast
Group L table →Panama are in a fight
Most likely finish: 3rd. Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana.
- win Group L
- 14%
- finish 2nd
- 27%
- best 3rd
- 27%
Why 67%?openclose
One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Panama reach the last 32.
runs
20,000
sealed
2026-06-10
venue
neutral
team rating
1848
players
not used
Group games
against Ghana
rating 1625
61%
win
22%
draw
17%
lose
against Croatia
rating 1964
25%
win
25%
draw
50%
lose
against England
rating 2082
16%
win
22%
draw
62%
lose
These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.
Deep cuts
- Hardest game: England, 16% to win.
- Clean route: 41% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
- Rating edge: -32 versus the Group L average.
Recent form
last 5 · 1W 1D 3L- W4–2
- D1–1
- L0–1
- L0–1
- L0–2
4 points from the last 5, 0.80 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.
Goals
last 10scored
11
conceded
17
goal diff
-6
clean sheets
0
Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 0 with a clean sheet, 4 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.
Players
ratings board →- J. GutiérrezDefender · 271599quality rating±63 · T2▼ −411 apps · 775′
- J. CórdobaDefender · 241594quality rating±57 · T2▼ −1324 apps · 1881′WC perf −3
- A. AndradeDefender · 271580quality rating±57 · T2▼ −1124 apps · 1929′WC perf −2
- C. BlackmanDefender · 271580quality rating±60 · T2▼ −822 apps · 1364′WC perf −1
- I. DíazMidfielder · 281573quality rating±63 · T2▼ −138 apps · 2515′WC perf −1
- O. MosqueraGoalkeeper · 311566quality rating±57 · T2▼ −657 apps · 5080′
- J. RodríguezMidfielder · 271561quality rating±51 · T2▼ −944 apps · 3276′WC perf −3
- C. HarveyMidfielder · 251565quality rating±57 · T2▼ −1123 apps · 1416′WC perf −1
Full squadopenclose
- A. Murillo1564
- F. Escobar1558
- J. Ramos1564
- É. Davis1554
- A. Londoño1567
- J. Fajardo1545
- Y. Bárcenas1540
- T. Rodríguez1552
- A. Quintero1487
Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.
The record
3 calls locked. 2 of 3 graded calls landed right.
- calls made
- 3
- graded
- 3
- called right
- 2/3
The calls
- v Englandwe called against · 0–2Called it
- v Croatiawe called against · 0–1Called it
- at Ghanawe backed them · 1–0Missed it
Context · sourced
- FIFA ranking
- 34thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29
Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.
Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose
Squad strength
all players →roster Elo average
1566
17 rated players, 26626 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.
best-rated XI
1583
17416 total / 11
next seven
1535
9210 total / 6
How it can move a forecastopenclose
Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.
When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.
Squad value · our estimate
all players →€14m–€54m
≈ €27m · 5 of 17 rated players priced
Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 5, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.
Signals
ProofXI rating
1852+22 this year
Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.
World rank
34thdown 1 place on the latest list
FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.
Rating moves · per match
World Football Elo- vs EnglandL 0–2 · 2026-06-27-13→ 1769
- vs CroatiaL 0–1 · 2026-06-23-19→ 1782
- vs GhanaL 0–1 · 2026-06-17-47→ 1801
- vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaD 1–1 · 2026-06-06-5→ 1848
- v Dominican RepublicW 4–2 · 2026-06-03+2→ 1854
- at BrazilL 2–6 · 2026-05-31-6→ 1852
- at South AfricaW 2–1 · 2026-03-31+8→ 1858
- at South AfricaD 1–1 · 2026-03-27-2→ 1850
How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.