Sweden

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Sweden need a run

49%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 4th. Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia.

win Group F: 8%
finish 2nd: 18%
best 3rd: 22%

Why 49%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Sweden reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

1765

players

not used

Group games

against Tunisia
rating 1738
40%
win
26%
draw
34%
lose
against Netherlands
rating 2012
15%
win
22%
draw
63%
lose
against Japan
rating 1993
16%
win
22%
draw
61%
lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

Hardest game: Netherlands, 15% to win.
Clean route: 26% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
Rating edge: -112 versus the Group F average.

Recent form

last 5 · 1W 2D 2L

D2–2v Greece
W5–1vs Tunisia
L1–5vs Netherlands
D1–1vs Japan
L0–3vs France

5 points from the last 5, 1.00 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

scored
18
conceded
23
goal diff
-5
clean sheets
0

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 0 with a clean sheet, 1 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →

No sourced squad rows for this side yet. The list opens when a dated squad feed lands.

The record

4 calls locked. 3 of 4 graded calls landed right.

calls made: 4
graded: 4
called right: 3/4

The calls

at Francewe called against · 3–0Called it
at Japanwe called against · 1–1Missed it
at Netherlandswe called against · 5–1Called it
v Tunisiawe backed them · 5–1Called it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking: 38thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-07-01

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Signals

ProofXI rating

1795-14 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

38thheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo

vs FranceL 0–3 · 2026-06-30-11→ 1795
vs JapanD 1–1 · 2026-06-25+17→ 1806
vs NetherlandsL 1–5 · 2026-06-20-28→ 1789
vs TunisiaW 5–1 · 2026-06-14+52→ 1817
v GreeceD 2–2 · 2026-06-04-2→ 1765
at NorwayL 1–3 · 2026-06-01-5→ 1767
v PolandW 3–2 · 2026-03-31+18→ 1772
vs UkraineW 3–1 · 2026-03-26+43→ 1755

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.