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Sweden

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Group F table →

Sweden need a run

49%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 4th. Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia.

win Group F
8%
finish 2nd
18%
best 3rd
22%
Why 49%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Sweden reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

1765

players

not used

Group games

  • against Tunisia

    rating 1738

    40%

    win

    26%

    draw

    34%

    lose

  • against Netherlands

    rating 2012

    15%

    win

    22%

    draw

    63%

    lose

  • against Japan

    rating 1993

    16%

    win

    22%

    draw

    61%

    lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

  • Hardest game: Netherlands, 15% to win.
  • Clean route: 26% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
  • Rating edge: -112 versus the Group F average.

Recent form

last 5 · 1W 2D 2L
  • L1–3at Norway
  • D2–2v Greece
  • W5–1vs Tunisia
  • L1–5vs Netherlands
  • D1–1vs Japan

5 points from the last 5, 1.00 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

  • scored

    18

  • conceded

    21

  • goal diff

    -3

  • clean sheets

    0

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 0 with a clean sheet, 1 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →
  • In formSweden
    V. GyökeresAttacker · 27
    2076quality rating±51 · T2▲ +16
    31 apps · 2267′WC perf +4
  • In formSweden
    A. IsakAttacker · 26
    1976quality rating±51 · T2▲ +22
    28 apps · 1767′WC perf +5
  • Sweden
    V. LindelöfDefender · 31
    1920quality rating±56 · T2▼ −1
    23 apps · 1762′WC perf −3
  • In formSweden
    Y. AyariMidfielder · 22
    1885quality rating±51 · T2▲ +17
    23 apps · 1526′WC perf +4
  • Sweden
    A. ElangaAttacker · 23
    1879quality rating±53 · T2▲ +8
    20 apps · 807′WC perf +6
  • Sweden
    G. LagerbielkeDefender · 25
    1871quality rating±55 · T2▲ +13
    17 apps · 1392′WC perf +2
  • Sweden
    G. GudmundssonMidfielder · 26
    1848quality rating±51 · T2▼ −2
    22 apps · 1712′WC perf −1
  • Sweden
    D. SvenssonDefender · 23
    1854quality rating±64 · T2
    19 apps · 1073′on club + age
Full squadopenclose

Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.

The record

4 calls locked. 2 of 3 graded calls landed right.

calls made
4
graded
3
called right
2/3

The calls

  • at Francewe called againstSealed
  • at Japanwe called against · 1–1Missed it
  • at Netherlandswe called against · 5–1Called it
  • v Tunisiawe backed them · 5–1Called it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking
38thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Squad strength

all players →

roster Elo average

1794

16 rated players, 28697 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.

best-rated XI

1885

20732 total / 11

next seven

1593

7966 total / 5

How it can move a forecastopenclose

Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.

When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.

Squad value · our estimate

all players →

€10m–€40m

≈ €20m · 3 of 16 rated players priced

Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 3, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.

Signals

ProofXI rating

1772-10 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

38thheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo
  • vs JapanD 1–1 · 2026-06-25+17→ 1806
  • vs NetherlandsL 1–5 · 2026-06-20-28→ 1789
  • vs TunisiaW 5–1 · 2026-06-14+52→ 1817
  • v GreeceD 2–2 · 2026-06-04-2→ 1765
  • at NorwayL 1–3 · 2026-06-01-5→ 1767
  • v PolandW 3–2 · 2026-03-31+18→ 1772
  • vs UkraineW 3–1 · 2026-03-26+43→ 1754
  • v SloveniaD 1–1 · 2025-11-18-4→ 1712

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.