FranceWorld Cup forecast
Group I table →France should get through
Most likely finish: 1st. Group I: Norway, Senegal, Iraq.
- win Group I
- 57%
- finish 2nd
- 26%
- best 3rd
- 10%
Why 93%?openclose
One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often France reach the last 32.
runs
20,000
sealed
2026-06-10
venue
neutral
team rating
2122
players
not used
Group games
against Senegal
rating 1920
59%
win
23%
draw
18%
lose
against Iraq
rating 1750
74%
win
18%
draw
9%
lose
against Norway
rating 1956
55%
win
24%
draw
21%
lose
These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.
Deep cuts
- Hardest game: Norway, 55% to win.
- Clean route: 83% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
- Rating edge: +185 versus the Group I average.
Recent form
last 5 · 3W 0D 2L- W3–0
- W1–0
- W2–0
- L0–2
- L4–6
9 points from the last 5, 1.80 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.
Goals
last 10scored
24
conceded
13
goal diff
+11
clean sheets
4
Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 4 with a clean sheet, 1 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.
Players
ratings board →No sourced squad rows for this side yet. The list opens when a dated squad feed lands.
The record
8 calls locked. 5 of 8 graded calls landed right.
- calls made
- 8
- graded
- 8
- called right
- 5/8
The calls
- v Englandwe backed them · 4–6Missed it
- v Spainwe called a draw · 0–2Missed it
- v Moroccowe backed them · 2–0Called it
- at Paraguaywe backed them · 0–1Called it
- v Swedenwe backed them · 3–0Called it
- at Norwaywe called a draw · 1–4Missed it
- v Iraqwe backed them · 3–0Called it
- v Senegalwe backed them · 3–1Called it
Context · sourced
- FIFA ranking
- 3rdFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-07-01
Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.
Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose
Signals
ProofXI rating
2137+27 this year
Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.
World rank
3rddown 2 places on the latest list
FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.
Rating moves · per match
World Football Elo- vs EnglandL 4–6 · 2026-07-18-51→ 2137
- vs SpainL 0–2 · 2026-07-14-42→ 2187
- vs MoroccoW 2–0 · 2026-07-09+27→ 2230
- vs ParaguayW 1–0 · 2026-07-04+10→ 2203
- vs SwedenW 3–0 · 2026-06-30+11→ 2193
- vs NorwayW 4–1 · 2026-06-26+31→ 2182
- vs IraqW 3–0 · 2026-06-22+8→ 2151
- vs SenegalW 3–1 · 2026-06-16+21→ 2142
How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.