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France

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Group I table →

France should get through

93%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 1st. Group I: Norway, Senegal, Iraq.

win Group I
57%
finish 2nd
26%
best 3rd
10%
Why 93%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often France reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

2122

players

not used

Group games

  • against Senegal

    rating 1920

    59%

    win

    23%

    draw

    18%

    lose

  • against Iraq

    rating 1750

    74%

    win

    18%

    draw

    9%

    lose

  • against Norway

    rating 1956

    55%

    win

    24%

    draw

    21%

    lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

  • Hardest game: Norway, 55% to win.
  • Clean route: 83% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
  • Rating edge: +185 versus the Group I average.

Recent form

last 5 · 4W 0D 1L
  • L1–2v Ivory Coast
  • W3–1v Northern Ireland
  • W3–1vs Senegal
  • W3–0vs Iraq
  • W4–1vs Norway

12 points from the last 5, 2.40 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

  • scored

    28

  • conceded

    10

  • goal diff

    +18

  • clean sheets

    2

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 2 with a clean sheet. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Team news · sourced

Canada rout nine-man Qatar but Koné injury sours first-ever World Cup win — After the midfielder’s horror injury in the second half, Jonathan David’s hat-trick kept spirits lifted on a historic night in Vancouver for the co-hosts

theguardian.com · 2026-06-26

A sourced read on availability, picked for relevance and gated fresh. It never touches the call.

Players

ratings board →
  • France
    W. SalibaDefender · 24
    2138quality rating±56 · T2▲ +6
    32 apps · 2799′WC perf −1
  • In formFrance
    M. OliseMidfielder · 24
    2109quality rating±56 · T2▲ +27
    32 apps · 2300′WC perf +7
  • In formFrance
    D. UpamecanoDefender · 27
    2091quality rating±56 · T2▲ +20
    25 apps · 1951′WC perf +3
  • In formFrance
    O. DembéléMidfielder · 28
    2081quality rating±51 · T2▲ +28
    28 apps · 1491′WC perf +6
  • France
    R. CherkiMidfielder · 22
    2082quality rating±51 · T2▲ +4
    33 apps · 1767′
  • In formFrance
    D. DouéMidfielder · 20
    2069quality rating±57 · T2▲ +21
    27 apps · 1621′WC perf +3
  • In formFrance
    Kylian MbappéAttacker · 27
    2054quality rating±51 · T2▲ +30
    54 apps · 4545′WC perf +11
  • France
    B. BarcolaAttacker · 23
    2066quality rating±59 · T2▲ +1
    27 apps · 1367′WC perf −3
Full squadopenclose

Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.

The record

4 calls locked. 2 of 3 graded calls landed right.

calls made
4
graded
3
called right
2/3

The calls

  • v Swedenwe backed themSealed
  • at Norwaywe called a draw · 1–4Missed it
  • v Iraqwe backed them · 3–0Called it
  • v Senegalwe backed them · 3–1Called it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking
3rdFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Squad strength

all players →

roster Elo average

2007

21 rated players, 42138 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.

best-rated XI

2102

23127 total / 11

next seven

1937

13558 total / 7

How it can move a forecastopenclose

Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.

When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.

Squad value · our estimate

all players →

€31m–€121m

≈ €61m · 1 of 21 rated players priced

Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 1, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.

Signals

ProofXI rating

2139+43 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

3rddown 2 places on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo
  • vs NorwayW 4–1 · 2026-06-26+31→ 2182
  • vs IraqW 3–0 · 2026-06-22+8→ 2151
  • vs SenegalW 3–1 · 2026-06-16+21→ 2142
  • v Northern IrelandW 3–1 · 2026-06-08+1→ 2121
  • v Ivory CoastL 1–2 · 2026-06-04-19→ 2120
  • vs ColombiaW 3–1 · 2026-03-29+12→ 2139
  • vs BrazilW 2–1 · 2026-03-26+8→ 2126
  • at AzerbaijanW 3–1 · 2025-11-16+2→ 2118

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.