Scotland

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Scotland are in a fight

60%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 3rd. Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Haiti.

win Group C: 12%
finish 2nd: 23%
best 3rd: 25%

Why 60%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Scotland reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

1833

players

not used

Group games

against Haiti
rating 1698
52%
win
25%
draw
24%
lose
against Morocco
rating 1984
22%
win
24%
draw
53%
lose
against Brazil
rating 2068
16%
win
22%
draw
62%
lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

Hardest game: Brazil, 16% to win.
Clean route: 35% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
Rating edge: -63 versus the Group C average.

Recent form

last 5 · 3W 0D 2L

W4–1v Curaçao
W4–0vs Bolivia
W1–0vs Haiti
L0–1vs Morocco
L0–3vs Brazil

9 points from the last 5, 1.80 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

scored
17
conceded
13
goal diff
+4
clean sheets
2

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 2 with a clean sheet, 4 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →

No sourced squad rows for this side yet. The list opens when a dated squad feed lands.

The record

3 graded, 3 called right. A clean sheet, and we noticed.

calls made: 3
graded: 3
called right: 3/3

The calls

v Brazilwe called against · 0–3Called it
v Moroccowe called against · 0–1Called it
at Haitiwe backed them · 0–1Called it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking: 42ndFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-07-01

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Signals

ProofXI rating

1813+52 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

42ndup 1 place on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo

vs BrazilL 0–3 · 2026-06-24-21→ 1813
vs MoroccoL 0–1 · 2026-06-19-19→ 1834
vs HaitiW 1–0 · 2026-06-13+19→ 1852
vs BoliviaW 4–0 · 2026-06-06+15→ 1834
v CuraçaoW 4–1 · 2026-05-30+5→ 1819
vs Ivory CoastL 0–1 · 2026-03-31-11→ 1814
v JapanL 0–1 · 2026-03-28-9→ 1825
v DenmarkW 4–2 · 2025-11-18+34→ 1834

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.