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Scotland

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Group C table →

Scotland are in a fight

60%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 3rd. Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Haiti.

win Group C
12%
finish 2nd
23%
best 3rd
25%
Why 60%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Scotland reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

1833

players

not used

Group games

  • against Haiti

    rating 1698

    52%

    win

    25%

    draw

    24%

    lose

  • against Morocco

    rating 1984

    22%

    win

    24%

    draw

    53%

    lose

  • against Brazil

    rating 2068

    16%

    win

    22%

    draw

    62%

    lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

  • Hardest game: Brazil, 16% to win.
  • Clean route: 35% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
  • Rating edge: -63 versus the Group C average.

Recent form

last 5 · 3W 0D 2L
  • W4–1v Curaçao
  • W4–0vs Bolivia
  • W1–0vs Haiti
  • L0–1vs Morocco
  • L0–3vs Brazil

9 points from the last 5, 1.80 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

  • scored

    17

  • conceded

    13

  • goal diff

    +4

  • clean sheets

    2

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 2 with a clean sheet, 4 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →
  • Scotland
    J. McGinnMidfielder · 31
    1901quality rating±51 · T2▼ −3
    41 apps · 3145′WC perf +2
  • Scotland
    A. RobertsonDefender · 31
    1906quality rating±56 · T2▼ −8
    41 apps · 2850′WC perf −4
  • Scotland
    B. DoakMidfielder · 20
    1870quality rating±57 · T2▼ −6
    19 apps · 964′
  • Scotland
    R. ChristieMidfielder · 30
    1863quality rating±51 · T2▼ −6
    39 apps · 1894′WC perf −2
  • Scotland
    S. McTominayMidfielder · 29
    1823quality rating±51 · T2▼ −6
    46 apps · 3957′WC perf −1
  • Scotland
    A. GunnGoalkeeper · 29
    1813quality rating±55 · T2▼ −10
    17 apps · 1494′WC perf −1
  • Scotland
    N. PattersonDefender · 24
    1814quality rating±64 · T2▼ −14
    13 apps · 586′
  • Scotland
    L. FergusonMidfielder · 26
    1762quality rating±55 · T2▼ −7
    32 apps · 2052′WC perf −1
Full squadopenclose

Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.

The record

3 graded, 3 called right. A clean sheet, and we noticed.

calls made
3
graded
3
called right
3/3

The calls

  • v Brazilwe called against · 0–3Called it
  • v Moroccowe called against · 0–1Called it
  • at Haitiwe backed them · 0–1Called it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking
42ndFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Squad strength

all players →

roster Elo average

1723

16 rated players, 27568 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.

best-rated XI

1795

19742 total / 11

next seven

1565

7826 total / 5

How it can move a forecastopenclose

Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.

When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.

Squad value · our estimate

all players →

€8.6m–€34m

≈ €17m · 3 of 16 rated players priced

Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 3, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.

Signals

ProofXI rating

1819+34 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

42ndup 1 place on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo
  • vs BrazilL 0–3 · 2026-06-24-21→ 1812
  • vs MoroccoL 0–1 · 2026-06-19-19→ 1834
  • vs HaitiW 1–0 · 2026-06-13+19→ 1852
  • vs BoliviaW 4–0 · 2026-06-06+15→ 1833
  • v CuraçaoW 4–1 · 2026-05-30+5→ 1819
  • vs Ivory CoastL 0–1 · 2026-03-31-11→ 1814
  • v JapanL 0–1 · 2026-03-28-9→ 1825
  • v DenmarkW 4–2 · 2025-11-18+34→ 1834

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.