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Argentina

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Group J table →

Argentina are almost through

97%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 1st. Group J: Austria, Algeria, Jordan.

win Group J
71%
finish 2nd
20%
best 3rd
6%
Why 97%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Argentina reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

2188

players

not used

Group games

  • against Algeria

    rating 1873

    69%

    win

    20%

    draw

    11%

    lose

  • against Austria

    rating 1894

    67%

    win

    20%

    draw

    12%

    lose

  • against Jordan

    rating 1775

    77%

    win

    16%

    draw

    7%

    lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

  • Hardest game: Austria, 67% to win.
  • Clean route: 91% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
  • Rating edge: +256 versus the Group J average.

Recent form

last 5 · 5W 0D 0L
  • W2–0vs Honduras
  • W3–0vs Iceland
  • W3–0vs Algeria
  • W2–0vs Austria
  • W3–1vs Jordan

15 points from the last 5, 3.00 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

  • scored

    29

  • conceded

    2

  • goal diff

    +27

  • clean sheets

    8

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 8 with a clean sheet. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Team news · sourced

Jordan 1-3 Argentina: World Cup 2026 – as it happened — Lionel Messi came off the bench to score his sixth goal of the World Cup as a much-changed Argentina strolled to victory

theguardian.com · 2026-06-29

A sourced read on availability, picked for relevance and gated fresh. It never touches the call.

Players

ratings board →
Full squadopenclose

Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.

The record

3 graded, 3 called right. A clean sheet, and we noticed.

calls made
3
graded
3
called right
3/3

The calls

  • at Jordanwe backed them · 1–3Called it
  • v Austriawe backed them · 2–0Called it
  • v Algeriawe backed them · 3–0Called it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking
1stFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Squad strength

all players →

roster Elo average

1934

22 rated players, 42538 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.

best-rated XI

1981

21794 total / 11

next seven

1904

13330 total / 7

How it can move a forecastopenclose

Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.

When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.

Squad value · our estimate

all players →

€10m–€40m

≈ €20m · 1 of 22 rated players priced

Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 1, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.

Signals

ProofXI rating

2186-25 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

1stup 2 places on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo
  • vs JordanW 3–1 · 2026-06-27+5→ 2224
  • vs AustriaW 2–0 · 2026-06-22+15→ 2219
  • vs AlgeriaW 3–0 · 2026-06-16+16→ 2204
  • vs IcelandW 3–0 · 2026-06-09+1→ 2189
  • vs HondurasW 2–0 · 2026-06-06+2→ 2187
  • v ZambiaW 5–0 · 2026-03-31+1→ 2186
  • v MauritaniaW 2–1 · 2026-03-270→ 2185
  • at AngolaW 2–0 · 2025-11-14+2→ 2185

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.