Spain

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Spain are almost through

99%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 1st. Group H: Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde.

win Group H: 74%
finish 2nd: 22%
best 3rd: 3%

Why 99%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Spain reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

2210

players

not used

Group games

against Cape Verde
rating 1653
85%
win
12%
draw
3%
lose
against Saudi Arabia
rating 1685
83%
win
13%
draw
4%
lose
against Uruguay
rating 1974
62%
win
22%
draw
16%
lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

Hardest game: Uruguay, 62% to win.
Clean route: 96% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
Rating edge: +330 versus the Group H average.

Recent form

last 5 · 5W 0D 0L

W3–0vs Austria
W1–0vs Portugal
W2–1vs Belgium
W2–0vs France
W1–0vs Argentina

15 points from the last 5, 3.00 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

scored
18
conceded
3
goal diff
+15
clean sheets
7

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 7 with a clean sheet, 1 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →

No sourced squad rows for this side yet. The list opens when a dated squad feed lands.

The record

8 calls locked. 5 of 8 graded calls landed right.

calls made: 8
graded: 8
called right: 5/8

The calls

v Argentinawe called a draw · 1–0Missed it
at Francewe called a draw · 0–2Missed it
v Belgiumwe backed them · 2–1Called it
at Portugalwe backed them · 0–1Called it
v Austriawe backed them · 3–0Called it
at Uruguaywe backed them · 0–1Called it
v Saudi Arabiawe backed them · 5–0Called it
v Cape Verdewe backed them · 0–0Missed it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking: 2ndFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-07-01

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Signals

ProofXI rating

2322+112 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

2ndheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo

vs ArgentinaW 1–0 · 2026-07-19+29→ 2322
vs FranceW 2–0 · 2026-07-14+42→ 2293
vs BelgiumW 2–1 · 2026-07-10+15→ 2251
vs PortugalW 1–0 · 2026-07-06+18→ 2235
vs AustriaW 3–0 · 2026-07-02+16→ 2217
vs UruguayW 1–0 · 2026-06-26+11→ 2201
vs Saudi ArabiaW 4–0 · 2026-06-21+7→ 2190
vs Cape VerdeD 0–0 · 2026-06-15-28→ 2183

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.