SpainWorld Cup forecast
Group H table →Spain are almost through
Most likely finish: 1st. Group H: Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde.
- win Group H
- 74%
- finish 2nd
- 22%
- best 3rd
- 3%
Why 99%?openclose
One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Spain reach the last 32.
runs
20,000
sealed
2026-06-10
venue
neutral
team rating
2210
players
not used
Group games
against Cape Verde
rating 1653
85%
win
12%
draw
3%
lose
against Saudi Arabia
rating 1685
83%
win
13%
draw
4%
lose
against Uruguay
rating 1974
62%
win
22%
draw
16%
lose
These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.
Deep cuts
- Hardest game: Uruguay, 62% to win.
- Clean route: 96% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
- Rating edge: +330 versus the Group H average.
Recent form
last 5 · 3W 2D 0L- D1–1
- W3–1
- D0–0
- W4–0
- W1–0
11 points from the last 5, 2.20 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.
Goals
last 10scored
22
conceded
4
goal diff
+18
clean sheets
7
Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 7 with a clean sheet, 2 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.
Team news · sourced
World Cup 2026: England through, Scotland wait and Spain hit by injuries – as it happened — Reaction from day 17 at the World Cup as we built up to the final group games and covered news from France, Iran, Spain and beyond
theguardian.com · 2026-06-29
A sourced read on availability, picked for relevance and gated fresh. It never touches the call.
Players
ratings board →- Mikel MerinoMidfielder · 292090quality rating±51 · T2▲ +242 apps · 2133′WC perf −1
- PedriMidfielder · 232045quality rating±51 · T2▲ +446 apps · 2943′WC perf +5
- Lamine YamalAttacker · 182047quality rating±51 · T2▲ +548 apps · 3616′
- Dani OlmoMidfielder · 272033quality rating±51 · T2▲ +846 apps · 2927′WC perf +4
- RodriMidfielder · 292032quality rating±51 · T2▲ +642 apps · 3309′WC perf +2
- Ferran TorresMidfielder · 252031quality rating±51 · T2▼ −447 apps · 2487′WC perf −2
- Pau Cubarsí ParedesDefender · 182010quality rating±55 · T2▼ −334 apps · 2993′WC perf −3
- Fabián RuizMidfielder · 291983quality rating±51 · T2▼ −238 apps · 2500′
Full squadopenclose
- Marc Cucurella1930
- Marcos Llorente1902
- Yeremy Pino1908
- Álex Baena1893
- Unai Simón1807
- Mikel Oyarzabal1808
- Nico Williams1799
- Aymeric Laporte1795
Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.
The record
3 calls locked. 2 of 3 graded calls landed right.
- calls made
- 3
- graded
- 3
- called right
- 2/3
The calls
- at Uruguaywe backed them · 0–1Called it
- v Saudi Arabiawe backed them · 5–0Called it
- v Cape Verdewe backed them · 0–0Missed it
Context · sourced
- FIFA ranking
- 2ndFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29
Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.
Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose
Squad strength
all players →roster Elo average
1955
16 rated players, 31276 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.
best-rated XI
2007
22073 total / 11
next seven
1840
9202 total / 5
How it can move a forecastopenclose
Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.
When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.
Squad value · our estimate
all players →€235m–€900m
≈ €464m · 13 of 16 rated players priced
Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 13, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.
Signals
ProofXI rating
2217+11 this year
Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.
World rank
2ndheld on the latest list
FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.
Rating moves · per match
World Football Elo- vs UruguayW 1–0 · 2026-06-26+11→ 2201
- vs Saudi ArabiaW 4–0 · 2026-06-21+7→ 2190
- vs Cape VerdeD 0–0 · 2026-06-15-28→ 2183
- vs PeruW 3–1 · 2026-06-08+2→ 2210
- v IraqD 1–1 · 2026-06-04-9→ 2208
- v EgyptD 0–0 · 2026-03-31-9→ 2217
- v SerbiaW 3–0 · 2026-03-27+2→ 2227
- v TurkeyD 2–2 · 2025-11-18-17→ 2225
How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.