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Australia

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Group D table →

Australia are in a fight

68%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 3rd. Group D: Turkey, Paraguay, USA.

win Group D
24%
finish 2nd
26%
best 3rd
18%
Why 68%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Australia reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

1902

players

not used

Group games

  • against Turkey

    rating 1963

    31%

    win

    26%

    draw

    44%

    lose

  • against USA

    rating 1826

    45%

    win

    25%

    draw

    29%

    lose

  • against Paraguay

    rating 1918

    35%

    win

    26%

    draw

    39%

    lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

  • Hardest game: Turkey, 31% to win.
  • Clean route: 50% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
  • Rating edge: +0 versus the Group D average.

Recent form

last 5 · 1W 2D 2L
  • L0–1vs Mexico
  • D1–1vs Switzerland
  • W2–0vs Turkey
  • L0–2at United States
  • D0–0vs Paraguay

5 points from the last 5, 1.00 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

  • scored

    10

  • conceded

    11

  • goal diff

    -1

  • clean sheets

    3

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 3 with a clean sheet, 5 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →
  • Australia
    C. VolpatoAttacker · 22
    1699quality rating±60 · T2▼ −4
    27 apps · 1222′WC perf −2
  • Australia
    A. CircatiDefender · 22
    1689quality rating±55 · T2▲ +6
    37 apps · 3168′WC perf +3
  • Australia
    J. BosDefender · 23
    1684quality rating±56 · T2▼ −3
    36 apps · 2657′WC perf −2
  • Australia
    C. MetcalfeMidfielder · 26
    1630quality rating±56 · T2▲ +10
    33 apps · 1096′WC perf +1
  • Australia
    H. SouttarDefender · 27
    1618quality rating±58 · T2▲ +1
    9 apps · 809′WC perf −1
  • Australia
    A. O NeillMidfielder · 27
    1611quality rating±55 · T2▲ +3
    19 apps · 1466′
  • Australia
    J. IrvineMidfielder · 32
    1598quality rating±60 · T2▼ −1
    34 apps · 2286′WC perf −2
  • Australia
    L. HerringtonDefender · 18
    1578quality rating±60 · T2▲ +1
    18 apps · 1592′
Full squadopenclose

Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.

The record

3 calls locked. 1 of 3 graded calls landed right.

calls made
3
graded
3
called right
1/3

The calls

  • at Paraguaywe called a draw · 0–0Called it
  • at USAwe called a draw · 2–0Missed it
  • v Turkeywe called against · 2–0Missed it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking
27thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Squad strength

all players →

roster Elo average

1591

14 rated players, 22275 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.

best-rated XI

1619

17805 total / 11

next seven

1490

4470 total / 3

How it can move a forecastopenclose

Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.

When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.

Squad value · our estimate

all players →

€5.9m–€23m

≈ €12m · 2 of 14 rated players priced

Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 2, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.

Signals

ProofXI rating

1900+50 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

27thheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo
  • vs ParaguayD 0–0 · 2026-06-25-1→ 1911
  • at United StatesL 0–2 · 2026-06-19-42→ 1912
  • vs TurkeyW 2–0 · 2026-06-13+53→ 1954
  • vs SwitzerlandD 1–1 · 2026-06-06+2→ 1902
  • vs MexicoL 0–1 · 2026-05-30-8→ 1900
  • v CuraçaoW 5–1 · 2026-03-31+5→ 1908
  • v CameroonW 1–0 · 2026-03-27+5→ 1903
  • vs ColombiaL 0–3 · 2025-11-18-10→ 1898

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.