IraqWorld Cup forecast
Group I table →Iraq need a run
Most likely finish: 4th. Group I: France, Norway, Senegal.
- win Group I
- 4%
- finish 2nd
- 12%
- best 3rd
- 15%
Why 31%?openclose
One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Iraq reach the last 32.
runs
20,000
sealed
2026-06-10
venue
neutral
team rating
1750
players
not used
Group games
against Norway
rating 1956
18%
win
23%
draw
59%
lose
against France
rating 2122
9%
win
18%
draw
74%
lose
against Senegal
rating 1920
21%
win
24%
draw
55%
lose
These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.
Deep cuts
- Hardest game: France, 9% to win.
- Clean route: 16% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
- Rating edge: -187 versus the Group I average.
Recent form
last 5 · 0W 1D 4L- D1–1
- L0–2
- L1–4
- L0–3
- L0–5
1 points from the last 5, 0.20 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.
Goals
last 10scored
7
conceded
19
goal diff
-12
clean sheets
2
Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 2 with a clean sheet, 5 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.
Players
ratings board →- Merchas DoskiDefender · 261569quality rating±55 · T2▼ −1121 apps · 1776′WC perf +4
- Zidane IqbalMidfielder · 221570quality rating±58 · T2▼ −616 apps · 877′WC perf +3
- Ibraheem BayeshMidfielder · 251562quality rating±56 · T2▼ −2616 apps · 1350′WC perf −1
- Amir Al AmmariMidfielder · 281559quality rating±56 · T2▼ −2220 apps · 1676′
- A. QasemAttacker · 221560quality rating±60 · T2▼ −1718 apps · 907′WC perf −3
- Munaf YounusDefender · 291556quality rating±65 · T2▼ −810 apps · 683′WC perf +1
- Aymen HusseinAttacker · 291545quality rating±59 · T2▼ −918 apps · 1246′WC perf +2
- Akam RahmanDefender · 271555quality rating±68 · T2▼ −494 apps · 342′WC perf −1
Full squadopenclose
- Ali Al Hamadi1557
- Hussein Ali1541
- Kevin Yakob1563
- Ahmed Basil1543
- Youssef Amyn1537
- A. Sher1561
- Z. Ismaeel1548
- A. Jasim1529
- M. Farji1550
- Zayed Tahseen1543
- Jalal Hassan Hachim1546
- Frans Putros1539
- Rebin Solaka1546
Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.
The record
3 graded, 3 called right. A clean sheet, and we noticed.
- calls made
- 3
- graded
- 3
- called right
- 3/3
The calls
- at Senegalwe called against · 5–0Called it
- at Francewe called against · 3–0Called it
- v Norwaywe called against · 1–4Called it
Context · sourced
- FIFA ranking
- 57thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29
Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.
Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose
Squad strength
all players →roster Elo average
1536
21 rated players, 32254 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.
best-rated XI
1557
17132 total / 11
next seven
1519
10636 total / 7
How it can move a forecastopenclose
Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.
When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.
Signals
ProofXI rating
1740+65 this year
Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.
World rank
57thheld on the latest list
FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.
Rating moves · per match
World Football Elo- vs SenegalL 0–5 · 2026-06-26-34→ 1672
- vs FranceL 0–3 · 2026-06-22-8→ 1706
- vs NorwayL 1–4 · 2026-06-16-23→ 1714
- vs VenezuelaL 0–2 · 2026-06-09-12→ 1737
- at SpainD 1–1 · 2026-06-04+9→ 1750
- vs AndorraW 1–0 · 2026-05-29+1→ 1740
- vs BoliviaW 2–1 · 2026-03-31+23→ 1740
- vs JordanL 0–1 · 2025-12-12-13→ 1717
How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.