Belgium

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Belgium should get through

87%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 1st. Group G: Iran, Egypt, New Zealand.

win Group G: 45%
finish 2nd: 28%
best 3rd: 13%

Why 87%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Belgium reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

1971

players

not used

Group games

against Egypt
rating 1810
54%
win
24%
draw
22%
lose
against Iran
rating 1904
44%
win
26%
draw
30%
lose
against New Zealand
rating 1732
62%
win
22%
draw
16%
lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

Hardest game: Iran, 44% to win.
Clean route: 74% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
Rating edge: +117 versus the Group G average.

Recent form

last 5 · 3W 2D 0L

W2–0at Croatia
W5–0v Tunisia
D1–1vs Egypt
D0–0vs Iran
W5–1vs New Zealand

11 points from the last 5, 2.20 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

scored
31
conceded
8
goal diff
+23
clean sheets
4

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 4 with a clean sheet, 1 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →

Belgium
L. TrossardMidfielder · 31
2081quality rating±51 · T2▲ +11
43 apps · 2923′WC perf +9
Belgium
J. DokuMidfielder · 23
2056quality rating±51 · T2▲ +3
41 apps · 2879′WC perf +2
Belgium
T. CourtoisGoalkeeper · 33
2004quality rating±51 · T2▼ −3
35 apps · 3165′WC perf +1
Belgium
Y. TielemansMidfielder · 28
2001quality rating±51 · T2▼ −2
41 apps · 2981′WC perf +2
Belgium
A. OnanaMidfielder · 24
1951quality rating±61 · T2▼ −2
35 apps · 2482′WC perf −1
Belgium
R. LukakuAttacker · 32
1934quality rating±51 · T2▼ −8
26 apps · 1467′WC perf −4
Belgium
M. De CuyperDefender · 25
1934quality rating±56 · T2▼ −2
37 apps · 1973′WC perf −1
Belgium
T. CastagneDefender · 30
1903quality rating±56 · T2▲ +2
46 apps · 3213′WC perf +1

Full squadopenclose

Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.

The record

4 calls locked. 1 of 3 graded calls landed right.

calls made: 4
graded: 3
called right: 1/3

The calls

v Senegalwe backed themSealed
at New Zealandwe backed them · 1–5Called it
v Iranwe backed them · 0–0Missed it
v Egyptwe backed them · 1–1Missed it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking: 9thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Squad strength

all players →

roster Elo average

1898

16 rated players, 30369 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.

best-rated XI

1947

21418 total / 11

next seven

1790

8951 total / 5

How it can move a forecastopenclose

Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.

When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.

Signals

ProofXI rating

1945+19 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

9thheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo

vs New ZealandW 5–1 · 2026-06-26+22→ 1975
vs IranD 0–0 · 2026-06-21-6→ 1952
vs EgyptD 1–1 · 2026-06-15-13→ 1958
v TunisiaW 5–0 · 2026-06-06+5→ 1971
at CroatiaW 2–0 · 2026-06-02+21→ 1966
vs MexicoD 1–1 · 2026-03-310→ 1945
at United StatesW 5–2 · 2026-03-28+19→ 1945
v LiechtensteinW 7–0 · 2025-11-180→ 1926

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.