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Paraguay

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Group D table →

Paraguay are in good shape

71%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 2nd. Group D: Turkey, Australia, USA.

win Group D
26%
finish 2nd
27%
best 3rd
18%
Why 71%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Paraguay reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

1918

players

not used

Group games

  • against USA

    rating 1826

    47%

    win

    25%

    draw

    28%

    lose

  • against Turkey

    rating 1963

    32%

    win

    26%

    draw

    42%

    lose

  • against Australia

    rating 1902

    39%

    win

    26%

    draw

    35%

    lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

  • Hardest game: Turkey, 32% to win.
  • Clean route: 53% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
  • Rating edge: +16 versus the Group D average.

Recent form

last 5 · 2W 1D 2L
  • L1–2vs Morocco
  • W4–0v Nicaragua
  • L1–4at United States
  • W1–0vs Turkey
  • D0–0vs Australia

7 points from the last 5, 1.40 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

  • scored

    13

  • conceded

    13

  • goal diff

    0

  • clean sheets

    4

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 4 with a clean sheet, 2 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Team news · sourced

Australia forced into changes for crucial World Cup group game against Paraguay — Australia will be missing Jacob Italiano and Mat Leckie from side that played USA for final group game against Paraguay

theguardian.com · 2026-06-25

A sourced read on availability, picked for relevance and gated fresh. It never touches the call.

Players

ratings board →
  • Paraguay
    D. GómezMidfielder · 22
    1838quality rating±51 · T2▼ −6
    42 apps · 2964′WC perf −2
  • Paraguay
    MaurícioMidfielder · 24
    1832quality rating±58 · T2▲ +1
    19 apps · 1172′WC perf +3
  • Paraguay
    G. GómezDefender · 32
    1808quality rating±54 · T2▼ −3
    32 apps · 3001′WC perf −2
  • Paraguay
    O. AldereteDefender · 29
    1774quality rating±55 · T2▼ −6
    43 apps · 3800′WC perf −2
  • Paraguay
    J. EncisoAttacker · 21
    1761quality rating±51 · T2▲ +6
    40 apps · 2959′WC perf +4
  • Paraguay
    D. BobadillaMidfielder · 24
    1740quality rating±57 · T2▼ −1
    27 apps · 1805′WC perf −3
  • Paraguay
    J. AlonsoDefender · 32
    1725quality rating±55 · T2
    23 apps · 2075′WC perf −1
  • Paraguay
    F. BalbuenaDefender · 34
    1702quality rating±64 · T2
    15 apps · 1188′on club + age
Full squadopenclose

Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.

The record

4 calls locked. 1 of 3 graded calls landed right.

calls made
4
graded
3
called right
1/3

The calls

  • at Germanywe called againstSealed
  • v Australiawe called a draw · 0–0Called it
  • at Turkeywe called against · 0–1Missed it
  • at USAwe backed them · 4–1Missed it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking
41stFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Squad strength

all players →

roster Elo average

1679

21 rated players, 35262 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.

best-rated XI

1764

19406 total / 11

next seven

1600

11203 total / 7

How it can move a forecastopenclose

Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.

When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.

Squad value · our estimate

all players →

€26m–€100m

≈ €51m · 7 of 21 rated players priced

Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 7, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.

Signals

ProofXI rating

1916+40 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

41stdown 1 place on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo
  • vs AustraliaD 0–0 · 2026-06-25+1→ 1901
  • vs TurkeyW 1–0 · 2026-06-19+34→ 1900
  • at United StatesL 1–4 · 2026-06-12-51→ 1866
  • v NicaraguaW 4–0 · 2026-06-05+2→ 1918
  • vs MoroccoL 1–2 · 2026-03-31-9→ 1916
  • at GreeceW 1–0 · 2026-03-27+10→ 1924
  • vs MexicoW 2–1 · 2025-11-18+11→ 1915
  • at United StatesL 1–2 · 2025-11-15-10→ 1903

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.