SenegalWorld Cup forecast
Group I table →Senegal are in a fight
Most likely finish: 3rd. Group I: France, Norway, Iraq.
- win Group I
- 17%
- finish 2nd
- 29%
- best 3rd
- 22%
Why 68%?openclose
One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Senegal reach the last 32.
runs
20,000
sealed
2026-06-10
venue
neutral
team rating
1920
players
not used
Group games
against France
rating 2122
18%
win
23%
draw
59%
lose
against Norway
rating 1956
33%
win
26%
draw
41%
lose
against Iraq
rating 1750
55%
win
24%
draw
21%
lose
These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.
Deep cuts
- Hardest game: France, 18% to win.
- Clean route: 46% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
- Rating edge: -17 versus the Group I average.
Recent form
last 5 · 1W 1D 3L- L2–3
- D0–0
- L1–3
- L2–3
- W5–0
4 points from the last 5, 0.80 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.
Goals
last 10scored
17
conceded
13
goal diff
+4
clean sheets
5
Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 5 with a clean sheet, 2 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.
Players
ratings board →- N. JacksonAttacker · 242055quality rating±51 · T2▼ −1320 apps · 1061′WC perf +1
- I. SarrAttacker · 271872quality rating±51 · T2▲ +824 apps · 1800′WC perf +6
- P. SarrMidfielder · 231844quality rating±51 · T2▼ −231 apps · 1704′
- I. NdiayeMidfielder · 251831quality rating±51 · T2▲ +725 apps · 1788′WC perf +3
- S. ManéAttacker · 331825quality rating±55 · T2▼ −926 apps · 2268′WC perf −1
- H. DiarraAttacker · 211806quality rating±51 · T2▲ +1119 apps · 1247′WC perf +3
- P. GueyeMidfielder · 261799quality rating±51 · T2▼ −626 apps · 1972′
- M. NiakhatéDefender · 291796quality rating±55 · T2▼ −1024 apps · 2083′WC perf −1
Full squadopenclose
Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.
The record
3 graded, 3 called right. A clean sheet, and we noticed.
- calls made
- 4
- graded
- 3
- called right
- 3/3
The calls
- at Belgiumwe called againstSealed
- v Iraqwe backed them · 5–0Called it
- at Norwaywe called against · 3–2Called it
- at Francewe called against · 3–1Called it
Context · sourced
- FIFA ranking
- 15thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29
Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.
Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose
Squad strength
all players →roster Elo average
1773
20 rated players, 35456 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.
best-rated XI
1843
20270 total / 11
next seven
1715
12007 total / 7
How it can move a forecastopenclose
Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.
When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.
Squad value · our estimate
all players →€1.6m–€6.1m
≈ €3.1m · 1 of 20 rated players priced
Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 1, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.
Signals
ProofXI rating
1920+46 this year
Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.
World rank
15thdown 1 place on the latest list
FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.
Rating moves · per match
World Football Elo- vs IraqW 5–0 · 2026-06-26+34→ 1904
- vs NorwayL 2–3 · 2026-06-22-23→ 1870
- vs FranceL 1–3 · 2026-06-16-21→ 1893
- vs Saudi ArabiaD 0–0 · 2026-06-09-6→ 1914
- at United StatesL 2–3 · 2026-05-31-10→ 1920
- v GambiaW 3–1 · 2026-03-31+2→ 1930
- vs PeruW 2–0 · 2026-03-28+9→ 1928
- at MoroccoL 0–3 · 2026-01-18-33→ 1919
How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.