GermanyWorld Cup forecast
Group E table →Germany should get through
Most likely finish: 1st. Group E: Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curaçao.
- win Group E
- 41%
- finish 2nd
- 36%
- best 3rd
- 14%
Why 91%?openclose
One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Germany reach the last 32.
runs
20,000
sealed
2026-06-10
venue
neutral
team rating
2007
players
not used
Group games
against Curaçao
rating 1602
76%
win
17%
draw
7%
lose
against Ivory Coast
rating 1814
58%
win
23%
draw
19%
lose
against Ecuador
rating 2027
35%
win
26%
draw
39%
lose
These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.
Deep cuts
- Hardest game: Ecuador, 35% to win.
- Clean route: 77% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
- Rating edge: +145 versus the Group E average.
Recent form
last 5 · 4W 0D 1L- W4–0
- W2–1
- W7–1
- W2–1
- L1–2
12 points from the last 5, 2.40 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.
Goals
last 10scored
31
conceded
9
goal diff
+22
clean sheets
4
Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 4 with a clean sheet. Sourced facts, never simulated.
Players
ratings board →- K. HavertzAttacker · 262165quality rating±51 · T2▲ +725 apps · 1603′WC perf +3
- J. MusialaMidfielder · 222073quality rating±51 · T2▲ +831 apps · 1862′WC perf +7
- J. KimmichDefender · 302048quality rating±54 · T2▲ +340 apps · 3269′WC perf +2
- J. TahDefender · 292045quality rating±54 · T2▼ −1837 apps · 2795′WC perf −5
- In formGermanyF. WirtzMidfielder · 222006quality rating±51 · T2▲ +1541 apps · 3079′WC perf +10
- L. GoretzkaMidfielder · 302021quality rating±60 · T2▼ −431 apps · 1900′WC perf −1
- M. NeuerGoalkeeper · 392013quality rating±54 · T2▼ −1030 apps · 2614′WC perf −1
- A. PavlovicMidfielder · 211984quality rating±55 · T2▼ −827 apps · 1798′WC perf −1
Full squadopenclose
- A. Rüdiger1962
- F. Nmecha1939
- N. Woltemade1938
- M. Thiaw1922
- W. Anton1915
- M. Beier1922
- A. Stiller1878
- P. Groß1865
- D. Undav1867
- D. Raum1864
- N. Brown1790
- L. Sané1790
- N. Amiri1786
Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.
The record
4 calls locked. 2 of 3 graded calls landed right.
- calls made
- 4
- graded
- 3
- called right
- 2/3
The calls
- v Paraguaywe backed themSealed
- at Ecuadorwe backed them · 2–1Missed it
- v Ivory Coastwe backed them · 2–1Called it
- v Curaçaowe backed them · 7–1Called it
Context · sourced
- FIFA ranking
- 10thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29
Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.
Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose
Squad strength
all players →roster Elo average
1966
21 rated players, 41289 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.
best-rated XI
2048
22528 total / 11
next seven
1912
13382 total / 7
How it can move a forecastopenclose
Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.
When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.
Signals
ProofXI rating
1999-34 this year
Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.
World rank
10thheld on the latest list
FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.
Rating moves · per match
World Football Elo- vs EcuadorL 1–2 · 2026-06-25-37→ 1999
- vs Ivory CoastW 2–1 · 2026-06-20+17→ 2035
- vs CuraçaoW 7–1 · 2026-06-14+11→ 2018
- at United StatesW 2–1 · 2026-06-06+8→ 2007
- v FinlandW 4–0 · 2026-05-31+2→ 1999
- v GhanaW 2–1 · 2026-03-30+1→ 1996
- at SwitzerlandW 4–3 · 2026-03-27+12→ 1995
- v SlovakiaW 6–0 · 2025-11-17+13→ 1983
How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.