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Portugal

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Group K table →

Portugal should get through

86%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 1st. Group K: Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo.

win Group K
38%
finish 2nd
34%
best 3rd
14%
Why 86%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Portugal reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

2027

players

not used

Group games

  • against DR Congo

    rating 1772

    64%

    win

    21%

    draw

    15%

    lose

  • against Uzbekistan

    rating 1824

    59%

    win

    23%

    draw

    18%

    lose

  • against Colombia

    rating 2063

    33%

    win

    26%

    draw

    41%

    lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

  • Hardest game: Colombia, 33% to win.
  • Clean route: 72% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
  • Rating edge: +106 versus the Group K average.

Recent form

last 5 · 3W 2D 0L
  • W2–1v Chile
  • W2–1v Nigeria
  • D1–1vs DR Congo
  • W5–0vs Uzbekistan
  • D0–0vs Colombia

11 points from the last 5, 2.20 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

  • scored

    23

  • conceded

    8

  • goal diff

    +15

  • clean sheets

    4

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 4 with a clean sheet, 3 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Team news · sourced

‘I’m back’: Ronaldo’s relief after double kickstarts Portugal World Cup push — Cristiano Ronaldo savoured the end of a ‘difficult, dark week’ after scoring twice in Portugal’s 5-0 rout of Uzbekistan and becoming the first player to find the net in six World Cups

theguardian.com · 2026-06-29

A sourced read on availability, picked for relevance and gated fresh. It never touches the call.

Players

ratings board →
Full squadopenclose

Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.

The record

3 calls locked. 1 of 3 graded calls landed right.

calls made
3
graded
3
called right
1/3

The calls

  • at Colombiawe called against · 0–0Missed it
  • v Uzbekistanwe backed them · 5–0Called it
  • v DR Congowe backed them · 1–1Missed it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking
5thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Squad strength

all players →

roster Elo average

1942

20 rated players, 38847 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.

best-rated XI

2040

22438 total / 11

next seven

1846

12920 total / 7

How it can move a forecastopenclose

Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.

When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.

Squad value · our estimate

all players →

€162m–€631m

≈ €320m · 12 of 20 rated players priced

Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 12, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.

Signals

ProofXI rating

2024-11 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

5thheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo
  • vs ColombiaD 0–0 · 2026-06-27+4→ 2044
  • vs UzbekistanW 5–0 · 2026-06-23+28→ 2040
  • vs DR CongoD 1–1 · 2026-06-17-19→ 2012
  • v NigeriaW 2–1 · 2026-06-10+4→ 2031
  • v ChileW 2–1 · 2026-06-06+3→ 2027
  • at United StatesW 2–0 · 2026-03-31+12→ 2024
  • at MexicoD 0–0 · 2026-03-28+1→ 2013
  • v ArmeniaW 9–1 · 2025-11-16+2→ 2011

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.