USAWorld Cup forecast
Group D table →USA are in a fight
Most likely finish: 4th. Group D: Turkey, Paraguay, Australia.
- win Group D
- 14%
- finish 2nd
- 20%
- best 3rd
- 18%
Why 52%?openclose
One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often USA reach the last 32.
runs
20,000
sealed
2026-06-10
venue
neutral
team rating
1826
players
not used
Group games
against Paraguay
rating 1918
28%
win
25%
draw
47%
lose
against Australia
rating 1902
29%
win
25%
draw
45%
lose
against Turkey
rating 1963
24%
win
24%
draw
52%
lose
These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.
Deep cuts
- Hardest game: Turkey, 24% to win.
- Clean route: 34% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
- Rating edge: -76 versus the Group D average.
Recent form
last 5 · 3W 0D 2L- W3–2
- L1–2
- W4–1
- W2–0
- L2–3
9 points from the last 5, 1.80 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.
Goals
last 10scored
23
conceded
18
goal diff
+5
clean sheets
1
Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 1 with a clean sheet, 1 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.
Players
ratings board →- In formUSAM. TillmanMidfielder · 231871quality rating±58 · T2▲ +2342 apps · 2442′WC perf +5
- B. AaronsonMidfielder · 251869quality rating±51 · T2▼ −645 apps · 2736′
- W. McKennieMidfielder · 271853quality rating±55 · T2▲ +1349 apps · 3895′WC perf +4
- C. PulisicMidfielder · 271841quality rating±51 · T2▲ +641 apps · 2409′WC perf +3
- In formUSAS. DestMidfielder · 251838quality rating±51 · T2▲ +1535 apps · 2706′WC perf +3
- R. PepiAttacker · 221826quality rating±57 · T2▼ −738 apps · 1959′WC perf −4
- T. WeahAttacker · 251795quality rating±60 · T2▼ −538 apps · 2795′WC perf −3
- In formUSAA. FreemanDefender · 211781quality rating±57 · T2▲ +3717 apps · 957′WC perf +7
Full squadopenclose
- M. McKenzie1743
- J. Scally1726
- G. Reyna1725
- A. Trusty1683
- S. Berhalter1629
- M. Robinson1622
- M. Turner1620
- A. Zendejas1602
Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.
The record
3 graded, none called right. They've made us look daft, and it stays up.
- calls made
- 4
- graded
- 3
- called right
- 0/3
The calls
- v Bosnia & Herzegovinawe backed themSealed
- at Turkeywe backed them · 3–2Missed it
- v Australiawe called a draw · 2–0Missed it
- v Paraguaywe called against · 4–1Missed it
Context · sourced
- FIFA ranking
- 17thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29
Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.
Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose
Squad strength
all players →roster Elo average
1751
16 rated players, 28016 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.
best-rated XI
1801
19816 total / 11
next seven
1640
8200 total / 5
How it can move a forecastopenclose
Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.
When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.
Squad value · our estimate
all players →€6.1m–€24m
≈ €12m · 1 of 16 rated players priced
Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 1, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.
Signals
ProofXI rating
1834+7 this year
Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.
World rank
17thdown 1 place on the latest list
FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.
Rating moves · per match
World Football Elo- v TurkeyL 2–3 · 2026-06-25-42→ 1877
- v AustraliaW 2–0 · 2026-06-19+42→ 1919
- v ParaguayW 4–1 · 2026-06-12+51→ 1877
- v GermanyL 1–2 · 2026-06-06-8→ 1826
- v SenegalW 3–2 · 2026-05-31+10→ 1834
- v PortugalL 0–2 · 2026-03-31-12→ 1824
- v BelgiumL 2–5 · 2026-03-28-19→ 1835
- v UruguayW 5–1 · 2025-11-18+22→ 1854
How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.