USAWorld Cup forecast
Group D table →USA are in a fight
Most likely finish: 4th. Group D: Turkey, Paraguay, Australia.
- win Group D
- 14%
- finish 2nd
- 20%
- best 3rd
- 18%
Why 52%?openclose
One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often USA reach the last 32.
runs
20,000
sealed
2026-06-10
venue
neutral
team rating
1826
players
not used
Group games
against Paraguay
rating 1918
28%
win
25%
draw
47%
lose
against Australia
rating 1902
29%
win
25%
draw
45%
lose
against Turkey
rating 1963
24%
win
24%
draw
52%
lose
These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.
Deep cuts
- Hardest game: Turkey, 24% to win.
- Clean route: 34% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
- Rating edge: -76 versus the Group D average.
Recent form
last 5 · 3W 0D 2L- W4–1
- W2–0
- L2–3
- W2–0
- L1–4
9 points from the last 5, 1.80 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.
Goals
last 10scored
22
conceded
20
goal diff
+2
clean sheets
2
Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 2 with a clean sheet, 1 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.
Players
ratings board →No sourced squad rows for this side yet. The list opens when a dated squad feed lands.
The record
5 calls locked. 2 of 5 graded calls landed right.
- calls made
- 5
- graded
- 5
- called right
- 2/5
The calls
- v Belgiumwe called against · 1–4Called it
- v Bosnia & Herzegovinawe backed them · 2–0Called it
- at Turkeywe backed them · 3–2Missed it
- v Australiawe called a draw · 2–0Missed it
- v Paraguaywe called against · 4–1Missed it
Context · sourced
- FIFA ranking
- 17thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-07-01
Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.
Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose
Signals
ProofXI rating
1840+33 this year
Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.
World rank
17thdown 1 place on the latest list
FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.
Rating moves · per match
World Football Elo- v BelgiumL 1–4 · 2026-07-06-51→ 1840
- v Bosnia and HerzegovinaW 2–0 · 2026-07-01+14→ 1892
- v TurkeyL 2–3 · 2026-06-25-42→ 1877
- v AustraliaW 2–0 · 2026-06-19+42→ 1919
- v ParaguayW 4–1 · 2026-06-12+51→ 1877
- v GermanyL 1–2 · 2026-06-06-8→ 1826
- v SenegalW 3–2 · 2026-05-31+10→ 1834
- v PortugalL 0–2 · 2026-03-31-12→ 1824
How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.