NetherlandsWorld Cup forecast
Group F table →Netherlands should get through
Most likely finish: 1st. Group F: Japan, Sweden, Tunisia.
- win Group F
- 45%
- finish 2nd
- 32%
- best 3rd
- 12%
Why 90%?openclose
One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Netherlands reach the last 32.
runs
20,000
sealed
2026-06-10
venue
neutral
team rating
2012
players
not used
Group games
against Japan
rating 1993
39%
win
26%
draw
35%
lose
against Sweden
rating 1765
63%
win
22%
draw
15%
lose
against Tunisia
rating 1738
66%
win
21%
draw
14%
lose
These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.
Deep cuts
- Hardest game: Japan, 39% to win.
- Clean route: 77% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
- Rating edge: +135 versus the Group F average.
Recent form
last 5 · 3W 1D 1L- L0–1
- W2–1
- D2–2
- W5–1
- W3–1
10 points from the last 5, 2.00 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.
Goals
last 10scored
24
conceded
9
goal diff
+15
clean sheets
2
Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 2 with a clean sheet, 1 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.
Players
ratings board →- T. ReijndersMidfielder · 272054quality rating±51 · T2▲ +846 apps · 2897′WC perf +3
- F. de JongMidfielder · 282029quality rating±51 · T2▲ +529 apps · 1895′WC perf +1
- N. AkéDefender · 302028quality rating±60 · T2▲ +132 apps · 1783′WC perf −1
- R. GravenberchMidfielder · 232016quality rating±51 · T2▲ +643 apps · 3471′WC perf +1
- C. GakpoAttacker · 262009quality rating±51 · T2▲ +1054 apps · 4162′WC perf +1
- D. MalenAttacker · 262010quality rating±51 · T2▼ −253 apps · 3130′WC perf −3
- V. van DijkDefender · 341975quality rating±55 · T2▲ +755 apps · 4853′WC perf +2
- D. DumfriesDefender · 291974quality rating±55 · T2▲ +1338 apps · 3075′WC perf +2
Full squadopenclose
- J. Kluivert1964
- J. van Hecke1947
- B. Verbruggen1941
- C. Summerville1892
- M. Depay1882
- B. Brobbey1871
- T. Koopmeiners1884
- N. Lang1816
Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.
The record
4 calls locked. 2 of 3 graded calls landed right.
- calls made
- 4
- graded
- 3
- called right
- 2/3
The calls
- v Moroccowe backed themSealed
- at Tunisiawe backed them · 1–3Called it
- v Swedenwe backed them · 5–1Called it
- v Japanwe backed them · 2–2Missed it
Context · sourced
- FIFA ranking
- 8thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29
Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.
Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose
Squad strength
all players →roster Elo average
1956
16 rated players, 31302 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.
best-rated XI
1995
21947 total / 11
next seven
1871
9355 total / 5
How it can move a forecastopenclose
Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.
When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.
Signals
ProofXI rating
2023-3 this year
Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.
World rank
8thdown 1 place on the latest list
FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.
Rating moves · per match
World Football Elo- vs TunisiaW 3–1 · 2026-06-25+10→ 2048
- vs SwedenW 5–1 · 2026-06-20+28→ 2038
- vs JapanD 2–2 · 2026-06-14-2→ 2010
- vs UzbekistanW 2–1 · 2026-06-08+5→ 2012
- v AlgeriaL 0–1 · 2026-06-03-16→ 2007
- v EcuadorD 1–1 · 2026-03-31-3→ 2023
- v NorwayW 2–1 · 2026-03-27+6→ 2026
- v LithuaniaW 4–0 · 2025-11-17+1→ 2021
How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.