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Saudi Arabia

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Group H table →

Saudi Arabia need a run

40%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 4th. Group H: Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde.

win Group H
2%
finish 2nd
14%
best 3rd
23%
Why 40%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Saudi Arabia reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

1685

players

not used

Group games

  • against Uruguay

    rating 1974

    13%

    win

    20%

    draw

    67%

    lose

  • against Spain

    rating 2210

    4%

    win

    13%

    draw

    83%

    lose

  • against Cape Verde

    rating 1653

    40%

    win

    26%

    draw

    34%

    lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

  • Hardest game: Spain, 4% to win.
  • Clean route: 16% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
  • Rating edge: -195 versus the Group H average.

Recent form

last 5 · 1W 3D 1L
  • W3–0vs Puerto Rico
  • D0–0vs Senegal
  • D1–1vs Uruguay
  • L0–4vs Spain
  • D0–0vs Cape Verde

6 points from the last 5, 1.20 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

  • scored

    8

  • conceded

    15

  • goal diff

    -7

  • clean sheets

    3

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 3 with a clean sheet, 5 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →
Full squadopenclose

Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.

The record

3 calls locked. 2 of 3 graded calls landed right.

calls made
3
graded
3
called right
2/3

The calls

  • at Cape Verdewe called a draw · 0–0Called it
  • at Spainwe called against · 5–0Called it
  • v Uruguaywe called against · 1–1Missed it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking
61stFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Squad strength

all players →

roster Elo average

1596

16 rated players, 25531 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.

best-rated XI

1613

17743 total / 11

next seven

1557

7787 total / 5

How it can move a forecastopenclose

Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.

When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.

Squad value · our estimate

all players →

€12m–€46m

≈ €23m · 2 of 16 rated players priced

Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 2, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.

Signals

ProofXI rating

1681-13 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

61stheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo
  • vs Cape VerdeD 0–0 · 2026-06-260→ 1704
  • vs SpainL 0–4 · 2026-06-21-7→ 1704
  • vs UruguayD 1–1 · 2026-06-15+20→ 1711
  • vs SenegalD 0–0 · 2026-06-09+6→ 1691
  • vs Puerto RicoW 3–0 · 2026-06-05+5→ 1685
  • vs EcuadorL 1–2 · 2026-05-30-3→ 1681
  • at SerbiaL 1–2 · 2026-03-31-4→ 1683
  • v EgyptL 0–4 · 2026-03-27-20→ 1687

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.