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New Zealand

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Group G table →

New Zealand need a run

44%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 4th. Group G: Belgium, Iran, Egypt.

win Group G
9%
finish 2nd
17%
best 3rd
18%
Why 44%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often New Zealand reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

1732

players

not used

Group games

  • against Iran

    rating 1904

    21%

    win

    24%

    draw

    56%

    lose

  • against Egypt

    rating 1810

    29%

    win

    25%

    draw

    46%

    lose

  • against Belgium

    rating 1971

    16%

    win

    22%

    draw

    62%

    lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

  • Hardest game: Belgium, 16% to win.
  • Clean route: 26% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
  • Rating edge: -122 versus the Group G average.

Recent form

last 5 · 0W 1D 4L
  • L0–4vs Haiti
  • L0–1vs England
  • D2–2vs Iran
  • L1–3vs Egypt
  • L1–5vs Belgium

1 points from the last 5, 0.20 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

  • scored

    10

  • conceded

    23

  • goal diff

    -13

  • clean sheets

    0

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 0 with a clean sheet, 4 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →
Full squadopenclose

Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.

The record

3 calls locked. 2 of 3 graded calls landed right.

calls made
3
graded
3
called right
2/3

The calls

  • v Belgiumwe called against · 1–5Called it
  • v Egyptwe called against · 1–3Called it
  • at Iranwe called against · 2–2Missed it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking
85thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Squad strength

all players →

roster Elo average

1564

16 rated players, 25021 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.

best-rated XI

1582

17405 total / 11

next seven

1523

7615 total / 5

How it can move a forecastopenclose

Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.

When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.

Squad value · our estimate

all players →

€15m–€58m

≈ €29m · 5 of 16 rated players priced

Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 5, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.

Signals

ProofXI rating

1757-57 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

85thheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo
  • vs BelgiumL 1–5 · 2026-06-26-22→ 1688
  • vs EgyptL 1–3 · 2026-06-21-35→ 1710
  • vs IranD 2–2 · 2026-06-15+14→ 1746
  • vs EnglandL 0–1 · 2026-06-06-2→ 1732
  • vs HaitiL 0–4 · 2026-06-02-23→ 1734
  • v ChileW 4–1 · 2026-03-30+26→ 1757
  • v FinlandL 0–2 · 2026-03-27-38→ 1731
  • vs EcuadorL 0–2 · 2025-11-18-6→ 1769

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.