New Zealand

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

New Zealand need a run

44%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 4th. Group G: Belgium, Iran, Egypt.

win Group G: 9%
finish 2nd: 17%
best 3rd: 18%

Why 44%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often New Zealand reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

1732

players

not used

Group games

against Iran
rating 1904
21%
win
24%
draw
56%
lose
against Egypt
rating 1810
29%
win
25%
draw
46%
lose
against Belgium
rating 1971
16%
win
22%
draw
62%
lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

Hardest game: Belgium, 16% to win.
Clean route: 26% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
Rating edge: -122 versus the Group G average.

Recent form

last 5 · 0W 1D 4L

L0–4vs Haiti
L0–1vs England
D2–2vs Iran
L1–3vs Egypt
L1–5vs Belgium

1 points from the last 5, 0.20 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

scored
10
conceded
23
goal diff
-13
clean sheets
0

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 0 with a clean sheet, 4 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →

No sourced squad rows for this side yet. The list opens when a dated squad feed lands.

The record

3 calls locked. 2 of 3 graded calls landed right.

calls made: 3
graded: 3
called right: 2/3

The calls

v Belgiumwe called against · 1–5Called it
v Egyptwe called against · 1–3Called it
at Iranwe called against · 2–2Missed it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking: 85thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-07-01

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Signals

ProofXI rating

1688-122 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

85thheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo

vs BelgiumL 1–5 · 2026-06-26-22→ 1688
vs EgyptL 1–3 · 2026-06-21-35→ 1711
vs IranD 2–2 · 2026-06-15+14→ 1746
vs EnglandL 0–1 · 2026-06-06-2→ 1732
vs HaitiL 0–4 · 2026-06-02-23→ 1734
v ChileW 4–1 · 2026-03-30+26→ 1757
v FinlandL 0–2 · 2026-03-27-38→ 1731
vs EcuadorL 0–2 · 2025-11-18-6→ 1769

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.