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Turkey

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Group D table →

Turkey are in good shape

79%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 1st. Group D: Paraguay, Australia, USA.

win Group D
36%
finish 2nd
27%
best 3rd
16%
Why 79%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Turkey reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

1963

players

not used

Group games

  • against Australia

    rating 1902

    44%

    win

    26%

    draw

    31%

    lose

  • against Paraguay

    rating 1918

    42%

    win

    26%

    draw

    32%

    lose

  • against USA

    rating 1826

    52%

    win

    24%

    draw

    24%

    lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

  • Hardest game: Paraguay, 42% to win.
  • Clean route: 63% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
  • Rating edge: +61 versus the Group D average.

Recent form

last 5 · 3W 0D 2L
  • W4–0v North Macedonia
  • W2–1vs Venezuela
  • L0–2vs Australia
  • L0–1vs Paraguay
  • W3–2at United States

9 points from the last 5, 1.80 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

  • scored

    19

  • conceded

    9

  • goal diff

    +10

  • clean sheets

    4

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 4 with a clean sheet, 2 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →
  • Turkey
    A. GülerMidfielder · 20
    1939quality rating±51 · T2▲ +2
    29 apps · 2066′WC perf +5
  • Turkey
    S. ÖzcanMidfielder · 27
    1835quality rating±60 · T2▲ +6
    23 apps · 948′WC perf −2
  • Turkey
    O. KabakDefender · 25
    1745quality rating±56 · T2▲ +12
    14 apps · 1045′WC perf +1
  • Turkey
    C. UzunMidfielder · 20
    1721quality rating±63 · T2▲ +1
    21 apps · 904′WC perf +3
  • Turkey
    B. YilmazMidfielder · 25
    1700quality rating±57 · T2▲ +5
    32 apps · 2012′WC perf +4
  • Turkey
    K. AyhanDefender · 31
    1712quality rating±66 · T2
    26 apps · 819′on club + age
  • Turkey
    Z. ÇelikDefender · 28
    1594quality rating±56 · T2▲ +1
    28 apps · 1810′WC perf +1
  • Turkey
    M. MüldürDefender · 26
    1588quality rating±60 · T2▼ −8
    27 apps · 1549′WC perf +1
Full squadopenclose

Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.

The record

3 graded, none called right. They've made us look daft, and it stays up.

calls made
3
graded
3
called right
0/3

The calls

  • v USAwe called against · 3–2Missed it
  • v Paraguaywe backed them · 0–1Missed it
  • at Australiawe backed them · 2–0Missed it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking
22ndFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Squad strength

all players →

roster Elo average

1659

16 rated players, 26548 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.

best-rated XI

1702

18727 total / 11

next seven

1564

7821 total / 5

How it can move a forecastopenclose

Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.

When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.

Squad value · our estimate

all players →

€34m–€134m

≈ €68m · 8 of 16 rated players priced

Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 8, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.

Signals

ProofXI rating

1953+69 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

22ndheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo
  • at United StatesW 3–2 · 2026-06-25+42→ 1918
  • vs ParaguayL 0–1 · 2026-06-19-34→ 1876
  • vs AustraliaL 0–2 · 2026-06-13-53→ 1910
  • vs VenezuelaW 2–1 · 2026-06-06+6→ 1963
  • v North MacedoniaW 4–0 · 2026-06-01+3→ 1956
  • at KosovoW 1–0 · 2026-03-31+17→ 1953
  • v RomaniaW 1–0 · 2026-03-26+5→ 1936
  • at SpainD 2–2 · 2025-11-18+17→ 1931

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.