Turkey

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Turkey are in good shape

79%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 1st. Group D: Paraguay, Australia, USA.

win Group D: 36%
finish 2nd: 27%
best 3rd: 16%

Why 79%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Turkey reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

1963

players

not used

Group games

against Australia
rating 1902
44%
win
26%
draw
31%
lose
against Paraguay
rating 1918
42%
win
26%
draw
32%
lose
against USA
rating 1826
52%
win
24%
draw
24%
lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

Hardest game: Paraguay, 42% to win.
Clean route: 63% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
Rating edge: +61 versus the Group D average.

Recent form

last 5 · 3W 0D 2L

W4–0v North Macedonia
W2–1vs Venezuela
L0–2vs Australia
L0–1vs Paraguay
W3–2at United States

9 points from the last 5, 1.80 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

scored
19
conceded
9
goal diff
+10
clean sheets
4

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 4 with a clean sheet, 2 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →

No sourced squad rows for this side yet. The list opens when a dated squad feed lands.

The record

3 graded, none called right. They've made us look daft, and it stays up.

calls made: 3
graded: 3
called right: 0/3

The calls

v USAwe called against · 3–2Missed it
v Paraguaywe backed them · 0–1Missed it
at Australiawe backed them · 2–0Missed it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking: 22ndFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-07-01

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Signals

ProofXI rating

1918+32 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

22ndheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo

at United StatesW 3–2 · 2026-06-25+42→ 1918
vs ParaguayL 0–1 · 2026-06-19-34→ 1876
vs AustraliaL 0–2 · 2026-06-13-53→ 1910
vs VenezuelaW 2–1 · 2026-06-06+6→ 1963
v North MacedoniaW 4–0 · 2026-06-01+3→ 1957
at KosovoW 1–0 · 2026-03-31+17→ 1953
v RomaniaW 1–0 · 2026-03-26+5→ 1936
at SpainD 2–2 · 2025-11-18+17→ 1931

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.