Iran

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Iran are in good shape

78%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 2nd. Group G: Belgium, Egypt, New Zealand.

win Group G: 30%
finish 2nd: 31%
best 3rd: 17%

Why 78%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Iran reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

1904

players

not used

Group games

against New Zealand
rating 1732
56%
win
24%
draw
21%
lose
against Belgium
rating 1971
30%
win
26%
draw
44%
lose
against Egypt
rating 1810
47%
win
25%
draw
28%
lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

Hardest game: Belgium, 30% to win.
Clean route: 61% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
Rating edge: +50 versus the Group G average.

Recent form

last 5 · 2W 3D 0L

W3–1vs Gambia
W2–0vs Mali
D2–2vs New Zealand
D0–0vs Belgium
D1–1vs Egypt

9 points from the last 5, 1.80 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

scored
16
conceded
6
goal diff
+10
clean sheets
6

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 6 with a clean sheet, 3 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →

No sourced squad rows for this side yet. The list opens when a dated squad feed lands.

The record

3 calls locked. 1 of 3 graded calls landed right.

calls made: 3
graded: 3
called right: 1/3

The calls

at Egyptwe backed them · 1–2Called it
at Belgiumwe called against · 0–0Missed it
v New Zealandwe backed them · 2–2Missed it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking: 20thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-07-01

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Signals

ProofXI rating

1893-14 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

20thup 1 place on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo

vs EgyptD 1–1 · 2026-06-26-3→ 1893
vs BelgiumD 0–0 · 2026-06-21+6→ 1896
vs New ZealandD 2–2 · 2026-06-15-14→ 1890
vs MaliW 2–0 · 2026-06-04+8→ 1904
vs GambiaW 3–1 · 2026-05-29+4→ 1896
vs Costa RicaW 5–0 · 2026-03-31+14→ 1893
vs NigeriaL 1–2 · 2026-03-27-11→ 1879
vs UzbekistanD 0–0 · 2025-11-18-2→ 1890

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.