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Iran

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Group G table →

Iran are in good shape

78%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 2nd. Group G: Belgium, Egypt, New Zealand.

win Group G
30%
finish 2nd
31%
best 3rd
17%
Why 78%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Iran reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

1904

players

not used

Group games

  • against New Zealand

    rating 1732

    56%

    win

    24%

    draw

    21%

    lose

  • against Belgium

    rating 1971

    30%

    win

    26%

    draw

    44%

    lose

  • against Egypt

    rating 1810

    47%

    win

    25%

    draw

    28%

    lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

  • Hardest game: Belgium, 30% to win.
  • Clean route: 61% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
  • Rating edge: +50 versus the Group G average.

Recent form

last 5 · 2W 3D 0L
  • W3–1vs Gambia
  • W2–0vs Mali
  • D2–2vs New Zealand
  • D0–0vs Belgium
  • D1–1vs Egypt

9 points from the last 5, 1.80 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

  • scored

    16

  • conceded

    6

  • goal diff

    +10

  • clean sheets

    6

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 6 with a clean sheet, 3 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →
  • Iran
    M. TaremiAttacker · 33
    1716quality rating±68 · T2▼ −11
    4 apps · 364′WC perf −5
  • In formIran
    A. BeiranvandGoalkeeper · 33
    1609quality rating±64 · T2▲ +15
    5 apps · 493′WC perf +4
  • Iran
    Saleh HardaniDefender · 27
    1597quality rating±65 · T2▲ +5
    10 apps · 637′WC perf +1
  • Iran
    M. MohammadiDefender · 32
    1597quality rating±71 · T2▼ −3
    4 apps · 307′
  • Iran
    S. EzatolahiMidfielder · 29
    1590quality rating±64 · T2▼ −8
    5 apps · 482′WC perf −4
  • Iran
    H. KananiDefender · 31
    1597quality rating±75 · T2▲ +5
    3 apps · 231′WC perf −2
  • Iran
    S. GhoddosMidfielder · 32
    1587quality rating±69 · T2
    5 apps · 363′WC perf −1
  • Iran
    S. KhalilzadehDefender · 36
    1577quality rating±64 · T2▲ +6
    5 apps · 493′WC perf +1
Full squadopenclose

Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.

The record

3 calls locked. 1 of 3 graded calls landed right.

calls made
3
graded
3
called right
1/3

The calls

  • at Egyptwe backed them · 1–2Called it
  • at Belgiumwe called against · 0–0Missed it
  • v New Zealandwe backed them · 2–2Missed it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking
20thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Squad strength

all players →

roster Elo average

1593

13 rated players, 20703 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.

best-rated XI

1608

17688 total / 11

next seven

1508

3015 total / 2

How it can move a forecastopenclose

Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.

When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.

Squad value · our estimate

all players →

€2.1m–€8.3m

≈ €4.2m · 1 of 13 rated players priced

Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 1, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.

Signals

ProofXI rating

1896-38 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

20thup 1 place on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo
  • vs EgyptD 1–1 · 2026-06-26-3→ 1893
  • vs BelgiumD 0–0 · 2026-06-21+6→ 1896
  • vs New ZealandD 2–2 · 2026-06-15-14→ 1890
  • vs MaliW 2–0 · 2026-06-04+8→ 1904
  • vs GambiaW 3–1 · 2026-05-29+4→ 1896
  • vs Costa RicaW 5–0 · 2026-03-31+14→ 1893
  • vs NigeriaL 1–2 · 2026-03-27-11→ 1879
  • vs UzbekistanD 0–0 · 2025-11-18-2→ 1890

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.