The Record
forward-only, never backtested · the lot, win or lose · method
104 graded.
Nothing deleted.
Every competition keeps its own record; a World Cup call never pads a Premier League number. When we say , it should land about 7 in 10. Here is every one, graded in the open.
Frequencies, not a market line. A 7-in-10 call means it should land about 70 times in 100 similar situations.
World Cup
104 graded · beats a coin-flip by 22% · this competition's games only
(home-win probability)
Calibration needs a larger sample before this curve is useful. Not enough graded matches in this competition yet, and we refuse to fit one on thin data or borrow another competition's games to fill it.
104 / 150 graded calls toward a first reliability curve
Skill over time
now 22% vs a coin-flip · 104 graded
The four verdicts
Public data
The same public ledger is available as record.json for machines and readers who want the stable IDs, canonical URLs, locked timestamps and grades.