The Record
forward-only, never backtested · the lot, win or lose · method
74 graded.
Nothing deleted.
Our calls beat a coin-flip by 17% over the 74 graded so far. When we say 7 in 10, it should land about 7 in 10. Here is every one, graded in the open.
Calibration (home-win probability)
Not enough graded matches yet to draw an honest reliability curve. We refuse to fit one on thin data.
74 / 150 matches toward a first reliability curve
The calls doing the filling are on matches.
Skill over time
now 17% vs a coin-flip · 74 graded
The four verdicts
Nailed it44
We'll take it2
Robbed7
Cooked21