Colombia

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Colombia should get through

90%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 1st. Group K: Portugal, Uzbekistan, DR Congo.

win Group K: 46%
finish 2nd: 32%
best 3rd: 12%

Why 90%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Colombia reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

2063

players

not used

Group games

against Uzbekistan
rating 1824
62%
win
22%
draw
16%
lose
against DR Congo
rating 1772
67%
win
20%
draw
13%
lose
against Portugal
rating 2027
41%
win
26%
draw
33%
lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

Hardest game: Portugal, 41% to win.
Clean route: 78% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
Rating edge: +142 versus the Group K average.

Recent form

last 5 · 4W 1D 0L

W3–1v Costa Rica
W2–0vs Jordan
W3–1vs Uzbekistan
W1–0vs DR Congo
D0–0vs Portugal

13 points from the last 5, 2.60 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

scored
16
conceded
8
goal diff
+8
clean sheets
5

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 5 with a clean sheet, 2 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →

In formColombia
L. DíazMidfielder · 28
2033quality rating±51 · T2▲ +15
47 apps · 3655′WC perf +3
Colombia
L. SuárezAttacker · 28
1992quality rating±51 · T2▲ +2
36 apps · 2741′WC perf −4
Colombia
D. MuñozDefender · 29
1887quality rating±57 · T2▲ +13
41 apps · 3314′WC perf +4
Colombia
J. AriasMidfielder · 28
1869quality rating±51 · T2▲ +13
52 apps · 3172′WC perf +4
Colombia
R. RiosMidfielder · 25
1865quality rating±62 · T2▲ +1
43 apps · 3183′WC perf −2
Colombia
J. LermaMidfielder · 31
1825quality rating±51 · T2▲ +7
42 apps · 2762′WC perf −1
Colombia
K. CastañoMidfielder · 25
1845quality rating±75 · T2▲ +2
9 apps · 372′on club + age
Colombia
J. LucumíDefender · 27
1786quality rating±55 · T2▲ +2
41 apps · 3301′WC perf −4

Full squadopenclose

Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.

The record

3 calls locked. 2 of 3 graded calls landed right.

calls made: 3
graded: 3
called right: 2/3

The calls

v Portugalwe backed them · 0–0Missed it
v DR Congowe backed them · 1–0Called it
at Uzbekistanwe backed them · 1–3Called it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking: 13thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Squad strength

all players →

roster Elo average

1770

17 rated players, 30083 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.

best-rated XI

1857

20423 total / 11

next seven

1610

9660 total / 6

How it can move a forecastopenclose

Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.

When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.

Signals

ProofXI rating

2055+27 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

13thheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo

vs PortugalD 0–0 · 2026-06-27-4→ 2086
vs DR CongoW 1–0 · 2026-06-23+9→ 2090
vs UzbekistanW 3–1 · 2026-06-17+18→ 2081
vs JordanW 2–0 · 2026-06-07+5→ 2063
v Costa RicaW 3–1 · 2026-06-01+3→ 2058
vs FranceL 1–3 · 2026-03-29-12→ 2055
vs CroatiaL 1–2 · 2026-03-26-13→ 2068
vs AustraliaW 3–0 · 2025-11-18+10→ 2080

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.