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England

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Group L table →

England should get through

95%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 1st. Group L: Croatia, Panama, Ghana.

win Group L
56%
finish 2nd
29%
best 3rd
10%
Why 95%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often England reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

2082

players

not used

Group games

  • against Croatia

    rating 1964

    50%

    win

    25%

    draw

    25%

    lose

  • against Ghana

    rating 1625

    79%

    win

    15%

    draw

    6%

    lose

  • against Panama

    rating 1848

    62%

    win

    22%

    draw

    16%

    lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

  • Hardest game: Croatia, 50% to win.
  • Clean route: 84% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
  • Rating edge: +202 versus the Group L average.

Recent form

last 5 · 4W 1D 0L
  • W1–0vs New Zealand
  • W3–0vs Costa Rica
  • W4–2vs Croatia
  • D0–0vs Ghana
  • W2–0vs Panama

13 points from the last 5, 2.60 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

  • scored

    20

  • conceded

    4

  • goal diff

    +16

  • clean sheets

    7

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 7 with a clean sheet, 2 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Team news · sourced

Reece James an England injury worry after complaining of tight hamstring — England are sweating on the fitness of Reece James before facing Panama on Saturday after the right-back complained of a tight hamstring

theguardian.com · 2026-06-29

A sourced read on availability, picked for relevance and gated fresh. It never touches the call.

Players

ratings board →
  • England
    D. RiceMidfielder · 26
    2144quality rating±51 · T2▲ +8
    52 apps · 4447′WC perf +8
  • England
    B. SakaAttacker · 24
    2136quality rating±51 · T2▲ +6
    45 apps · 3098′WC perf +3
  • England
    E. EzeMidfielder · 27
    2128quality rating±51 · T2▼ −2
    36 apps · 1560′WC perf −1
  • England
    N. MaduekeAttacker · 23
    2125quality rating±51 · T2▼ −5
    33 apps · 1600′WC perf −4
  • England
    H. KaneAttacker · 32
    2063quality rating±51 · T2▲ +12
    51 apps · 3960′WC perf +5
  • England
    M. GuéhiDefender · 25
    2050quality rating±56 · T2▼ −2
    54 apps · 4562′WC perf −1
  • England
    M. RashfordMidfielder · 28
    2032quality rating±51 · T2▲ +4
    37 apps · 1686′
  • England
    M. RogersMidfielder · 23
    2026quality rating±51 · T2▲ +5
    39 apps · 2879′WC perf +2
Full squadopenclose

Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.

The record

4 calls locked. 2 of 3 graded calls landed right.

calls made
4
graded
3
called right
2/3

The calls

  • v DR Congowe backed themSealed
  • at Panamawe backed them · 0–2Called it
  • v Ghanawe backed them · 0–0Missed it
  • v Croatiawe backed them · 4–2Called it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking
4thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Squad strength

all players →

roster Elo average

1995

19 rated players, 37913 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.

best-rated XI

2078

22856 total / 11

next seven

1915

13405 total / 7

How it can move a forecastopenclose

Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.

When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.

Signals

ProofXI rating

2080+10 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

4thheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo
  • vs PanamaW 2–0 · 2026-06-27+13→ 2104
  • vs GhanaD 0–0 · 2026-06-23-26→ 2091
  • vs CroatiaW 4–2 · 2026-06-17+30→ 2116
  • vs Costa RicaW 3–0 · 2026-06-10+4→ 2087
  • vs New ZealandW 1–0 · 2026-06-06+2→ 2082
  • v JapanL 0–1 · 2026-03-31-16→ 2080
  • v UruguayD 1–1 · 2026-03-27-6→ 2095
  • at AlbaniaW 2–0 · 2025-11-16+11→ 2101

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.