England

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

England should get through

95%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 1st. Group L: Croatia, Panama, Ghana.

win Group L: 56%
finish 2nd: 29%
best 3rd: 10%

Why 95%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often England reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

2082

players

not used

Group games

against Croatia
rating 1964
50%
win
25%
draw
25%
lose
against Ghana
rating 1625
79%
win
15%
draw
6%
lose
against Panama
rating 1848
62%
win
22%
draw
16%
lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

Hardest game: Croatia, 50% to win.
Clean route: 84% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
Rating edge: +202 versus the Group L average.

Recent form

last 5 · 4W 0D 1L

W2–1vs DR Congo
W3–2at Mexico
W2–1vs Norway
L1–2vs Argentina
W6–4vs France

12 points from the last 5, 2.40 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

scored
24
conceded
12
goal diff
+12
clean sheets
4

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 4 with a clean sheet, 1 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →

No sourced squad rows for this side yet. The list opens when a dated squad feed lands.

The record

8 calls locked. 5 of 8 graded calls landed right.

calls made: 8
graded: 8
called right: 5/8

The calls

at Francewe called against · 4–6Missed it
v Argentinawe called against · 1–2Called it
at Norwaywe backed them · 1–2Called it
at Mexicowe called a draw · 2–3Missed it
v DR Congowe backed them · 2–1Called it
at Panamawe backed them · 0–2Called it
v Ghanawe backed them · 0–0Missed it
v Croatiawe backed them · 4–2Called it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking: 4thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-07-01

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Signals

ProofXI rating

2195+150 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

4thheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo

vs FranceW 6–4 · 2026-07-18+51→ 2195
vs ArgentinaL 1–2 · 2026-07-15-23→ 2144
vs NorwayW 2–1 · 2026-07-11+20→ 2167
at MexicoW 3–2 · 2026-07-05+33→ 2146
vs DR CongoW 2–1 · 2026-07-01+10→ 2114
vs PanamaW 2–0 · 2026-06-27+13→ 2104
vs GhanaD 0–0 · 2026-06-23-26→ 2091
vs CroatiaW 4–2 · 2026-06-17+30→ 2117

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.