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Brazil

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Group C table →

Brazil should get through

93%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 1st. Group C: Morocco, Scotland, Haiti.

win Group C
53%
finish 2nd
30%
best 3rd
11%
Why 93%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Brazil reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

2068

players

not used

Group games

  • against Morocco

    rating 1984

    46%

    win

    25%

    draw

    28%

    lose

  • against Haiti

    rating 1698

    74%

    win

    18%

    draw

    9%

    lose

  • against Scotland

    rating 1833

    62%

    win

    22%

    draw

    16%

    lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

  • Hardest game: Morocco, 46% to win.
  • Clean route: 82% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
  • Rating edge: +172 versus the Group C average.

Recent form

last 5 · 4W 1D 0L
  • W6–2v Panama
  • W2–1vs Egypt
  • D1–1vs Morocco
  • W3–0vs Haiti
  • W3–0vs Scotland

13 points from the last 5, 2.60 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

  • scored

    24

  • conceded

    11

  • goal diff

    +13

  • clean sheets

    3

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 3 with a clean sheet. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Team news · sourced

'Not much faith’: the view from Brazil as they prepare to face Scotland | Tom Sanderson — Debate is raging back home about whether Neymar, Casemiro, Endrick – and others – should be in the World Cup team against the Tartan Army

theguardian.com · 2026-06-29

A sourced read on availability, picked for relevance and gated fresh. It never touches the call.

Players

ratings board →
Full squadopenclose

Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.

The record

4 calls locked. 3 of 4 graded calls landed right.

calls made
4
graded
4
called right
3/4

The calls

  • v Japanwe backed them · 2–1Called it
  • at Scotlandwe backed them · 0–3Called it
  • v Haitiwe backed them · 3–0Called it
  • v Moroccowe backed them · 1–1Missed it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking
6thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Squad strength

all players →

roster Elo average

1974

17 rated players, 33563 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.

best-rated XI

2053

22578 total / 11

next seven

1831

10985 total / 6

How it can move a forecastopenclose

Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.

When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.

Squad value · our estimate

all players →

€85m–€333m

≈ €169m · 8 of 17 rated players priced

Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 8, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.

Signals

ProofXI rating

2064-3 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

6thheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo
  • vs ScotlandW 3–0 · 2026-06-24+21→ 2092
  • vs HaitiW 3–0 · 2026-06-19+11→ 2071
  • vs MoroccoD 1–1 · 2026-06-13-7→ 2061
  • vs EgyptW 2–1 · 2026-06-06+4→ 2068
  • v PanamaW 6–2 · 2026-05-31+6→ 2064
  • vs CroatiaW 3–1 · 2026-03-31+13→ 2058
  • vs FranceL 1–2 · 2026-03-26-8→ 2045
  • vs TunisiaD 1–1 · 2025-11-18-7→ 2054

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.