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South Africa

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Group A table →

South Africa need a run

34%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 4th. Group A: Mexico, South Korea, Czech Republic.

win Group A
5%
finish 2nd
13%
best 3rd
16%
Why 34%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often South Africa reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

1662

players

not used

Group games

  • against Mexico

    rating 1976

    11%

    win

    20%

    draw

    69%

    lose

  • against Czech Republic

    rating 1796

    24%

    win

    25%

    draw

    52%

    lose

  • against South Korea

    rating 1880

    17%

    win

    23%

    draw

    60%

    lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

  • Hardest game: Mexico, 11% to win.
  • Clean route: 18% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
  • Rating edge: -166 versus the Group A average.

Recent form

last 5 · 2W 1D 2L
  • W1–0vs Jamaica
  • L0–2at Mexico
  • D1–1vs Czech Republic
  • W1–0vs South Korea
  • L0–1vs Canada

7 points from the last 5, 1.40 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

  • scored

    9

  • conceded

    11

  • goal diff

    -2

  • clean sheets

    3

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 3 with a clean sheet, 3 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Team news · sourced

Canada first into last 16 as Stephen Eustáquio scores in stoppage time against South Africa — The Canada captain broke the goal drought in the 92nd minute for a 1-0 victory against South Africa

theguardian.com · 2026-06-29

A sourced read on availability, picked for relevance and gated fresh. It never touches the call.

Players

ratings board →
Full squadopenclose

Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.

The record

4 calls locked. 2 of 4 graded calls landed right.

calls made
4
graded
4
called right
2/4

The calls

  • v Canadawe called against · 0–1Called it
  • v South Koreawe called against · 1–0Missed it
  • at Czech Republicwe called against · 1–1Missed it
  • at Mexicowe called against · 2–0Called it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking
60thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Squad strength

all players →

roster Elo average

1588

15 rated players, 23825 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.

best-rated XI

1615

17761 total / 11

next seven

1516

6064 total / 4

How it can move a forecastopenclose

Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.

When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.

Signals

ProofXI rating

1652-24 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

60thheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo
  • vs CanadaL 0–1 · 2026-06-28-18→ 1693
  • vs South KoreaW 1–0 · 2026-06-24+47→ 1712
  • vs Czech RepublicD 1–1 · 2026-06-18+10→ 1665
  • at MexicoL 0–2 · 2026-06-11-8→ 1655
  • vs JamaicaW 1–0 · 2026-06-06+10→ 1663
  • v NicaraguaD 0–0 · 2026-05-29-7→ 1652
  • v PanamaL 1–2 · 2026-03-31-8→ 1659
  • v PanamaD 1–1 · 2026-03-27+2→ 1666

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.