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World Cup

the tournament
sealed before kickoff

Live · projected to lift the cup

Argentina

19%to lift
the cup

Argentina head the field, with Spain (19%) the nearest challenger. Every side below is run from its group all the way through the bracket to the final, redrawn as results land.

The title race · live, likeliest first

  1. 1ArgentinaGroup J
    19%sealed 15%

    Their run to the final · who they’d meet

    • Last 32100%
      • Cape Verde100%
    • Last 1690%
      • Australia60%
      • Egypt40%
    • Quarter-final72%
      • Colombia55%
      • Switzerland27%
      • Algeria15%
    • Semi-final49%
      • Brazil35%
      • England26%
      • Ecuador14%
    • Final32%
      • Spain30%
      • France19%
      • Portugal7%
    • Lift the cup19%

    a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

  2. 2SpainGroup H
    19%sealed 19%

    Their run to the final · who they’d meet

    • Last 32100%
      • Austria100%
    • Last 1679%
      • Portugal57%
      • Croatia43%
    • Quarter-final56%
      • Belgium38%
      • Senegal30%
      • USA25%
    • Semi-final44%
      • France35%
      • Netherlands15%
      • Germany15%
    • Final30%
      • Argentina32%
      • Brazil17%
      • Colombia14%
    • Lift the cup19%

    a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

  3. 3FranceGroup I
    11%sealed 9%

    Their run to the final · who they’d meet

    • Last 32100%
      • Sweden100%
    • Last 1681%
      • Germany60%
      • Paraguay40%
    • Quarter-final53%
      • Canada40%
      • Netherlands32%
      • Morocco28%
    • Semi-final35%
      • Spain43%
      • Belgium14%
      • Portugal13%
    • Final20%
      • Argentina31%
      • Brazil18%
      • Colombia14%
    • Lift the cup11%

    a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

  4. 4BrazilGroup C
    9%sealed 5%

    Their run to the final · who they’d meet

    • Last 32100%
      • Japan100%
    • Last 16100%
      • Norway65%
      • Ivory Coast35%
    • Quarter-final66%
      • England46%
      • Ecuador28%
      • Mexico20%
    • Semi-final36%
      • Argentina49%
      • Colombia27%
      • Switzerland10%
    • Final18%
      • Spain29%
      • France21%
      • Portugal7%
    • Lift the cup9%

    a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

  5. 5ColombiaGroup K
    7%sealed 5%

    Their run to the final · who they’d meet

    • Last 32100%
      • Ghana100%
    • Last 1686%
      • Switzerland60%
      • Algeria40%
    • Quarter-final55%
      • Argentina72%
      • Australia16%
      • Egypt9%
    • Semi-final26%
      • Brazil36%
      • England26%
      • Ecuador14%
    • Final14%
      • Spain30%
      • France20%
      • Netherlands7%
    • Lift the cup7%

    a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

  6. 6EnglandGroup L
    7%sealed 6%

    Their run to the final · who they’d meet

    • Last 32100%
      • DR Congo100%
    • Last 1679%
      • Ecuador56%
      • Mexico44%
    • Quarter-final46%
      • Brazil66%
      • Norway25%
      • Ivory Coast9%
    • Semi-final26%
      • Argentina49%
      • Colombia26%
      • Switzerland10%
    • Final13%
      • Spain32%
      • France20%
      • Germany7%
    • Lift the cup7%

    a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

  7. 7PortugalGroup K
    3%sealed 4%

    Their run to the final · who they’d meet

    • Last 32100%
      • Croatia100%
    • Last 1656%
      • Spain80%
      • Austria20%
    • Quarter-final21%
      • Belgium38%
      • Senegal29%
      • USA25%
    • Semi-final13%
      • France36%
      • Netherlands14%
      • Morocco14%
    • Final7%
      • Argentina33%
      • Brazil18%
      • Colombia13%
    • Lift the cup3%

    a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

  8. 8GermanyGroup E
    3%sealed 3%

    Their run to the final · who they’d meet

    • Last 32100%
      • Paraguay100%
    • Last 1660%
      • France81%
      • Sweden19%
    • Quarter-final27%
      • Canada39%
      • Netherlands33%
      • Morocco28%
    • Semi-final15%
      • Spain45%
      • Belgium13%
      • Portugal12%
    • Final6%
      • Argentina32%
      • Brazil18%
      • Colombia14%
    • Lift the cup3%

    a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

  9. 9EcuadorGroup E
    3%sealed 4%

    Their run to the final · who they’d meet

    • Last 32100%
      • Mexico100%
    • Last 1656%
      • England79%
      • DR Congo21%
    • Quarter-final28%
      • Brazil66%
      • Norway25%
      • Ivory Coast9%
    • Semi-final14%
      • Argentina47%
      • Colombia27%
      • Switzerland10%
    • Final6%
      • Spain31%
      • France19%
      • Portugal7%
    • Lift the cup3%

    a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

  10. 10BelgiumGroup G
    3%sealed 2%

    Their run to the final · who they’d meet

    • Last 32100%
      • Senegal100%
    • Last 1655%
      • USA67%
      • Bosnia & Herzegovina33%
    • Quarter-final38%
      • Spain56%
      • Portugal21%
      • Croatia15%
    • Semi-final14%
      • France36%
      • Netherlands15%
      • Canada14%
    • Final6%
      • Argentina32%
      • Brazil17%
      • England13%
    • Lift the cup3%

    a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

  11. 11NetherlandsGroup F
    3%sealed 3%

    Their run to the final · who they’d meet

    • Last 32100%
      • Morocco100%
    • Last 1653%
      • Canada100%
    • Quarter-final32%
      • France53%
      • Germany27%
      • Paraguay14%
    • Semi-final15%
      • Spain44%
      • Belgium14%
      • Portugal12%
    • Final6%
      • Argentina33%
      • Brazil17%
      • Colombia16%
    • Lift the cup3%

    a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

  12. 12MoroccoGroup C
    2%sealed 2%

    Their run to the final · who they’d meet

    • Last 32100%
      • Netherlands100%
    • Last 1647%
      • Canada100%
    • Quarter-final28%
      • France53%
      • Germany27%
      • Paraguay15%
    • Semi-final13%
      • Spain43%
      • Portugal15%
      • Belgium14%
    • Final5%
      • Argentina32%
      • Brazil16%
      • England14%
    • Lift the cup2%

    a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

20,000 simulations · each side played from its group through the fixed bracket to match 104 · a knockout is win chance plus half the draw

Next call

every call →
Mon 29 JunSealed

Germany v Paraguay

Germany win

The groups

all groups →

Mexico 50% to top Group A

group projections, sealed before a ball is kicked

The knockouts

who goes through →

Spain 99% to reach the last 32

all 48 ranked, top two plus the eight best thirds

Live Desk

the desk, working live

Record

every call, graded

Method

how the call is made

Title race sealed 2026-06-10, before a ball was kicked; the live numbers re-run the same engine and seed with played group games fixed to their real scores. draw: openfootball (CC0) · ratings: our national Elo from CC0 international results. The sealed call stays where we left it; nothing here is deleted.