World Cup

The title race · live, likeliest first

1. 1SpainGroup H

   100%sealed 19% ▲ +81

   ▾▴

   Their run to the final · who they’d meet

   • Last 32100%
     • Austria100%
   • Last 16100%
     • Portugal100%
   • Quarter-final100%
     • Belgium100%
   • Semi-final100%
     • France100%
   • Final100%
     • Argentina100%
   • Lift the cup100%

   a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

2. 2MexicoGroup A

   0%sealed 2% ▼ −2

   ▾▴

   Their run to the final · who they’d meet

   • Last 32100%
     • Ecuador100%
   • Last 16100%
     • England100%
   • Quarter-final0%
   • Semi-final0%
   • Final0%
   • Lift the cup0%

   a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

3. 3South KoreaGroup A

   0%sealed 1% ▼ −1

   ▾▴

   Their run to the final · who they’d meet

   • Last 320%
   • Last 160%
   • Quarter-final0%
   • Semi-final0%
   • Final0%
   • Lift the cup0%

   a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

4. 4Czech RepublicGroup A

   0%sealed 0% ·

   ▾▴

   Their run to the final · who they’d meet

   • Last 320%
   • Last 160%
   • Quarter-final0%
   • Semi-final0%
   • Final0%
   • Lift the cup0%

   a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

5. 5South AfricaGroup A

   0%sealed 0% ·

   ▾▴

   Their run to the final · who they’d meet

   • Last 32100%
     • Canada100%
   • Last 160%
   • Quarter-final0%
   • Semi-final0%
   • Final0%
   • Lift the cup0%

   a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

6. 6SwitzerlandGroup B

   0%sealed 2% ▼ −2

   ▾▴

   Their run to the final · who they’d meet

   • Last 32100%
     • Algeria100%
   • Last 16100%
     • Colombia100%
   • Quarter-final100%
     • Argentina100%
   • Semi-final0%
   • Final0%
   • Lift the cup0%

   a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

7. 7CanadaGroup B

   0%sealed 1% ▼ −1

   ▾▴

   Their run to the final · who they’d meet

   • Last 32100%
     • South Africa100%
   • Last 16100%
     • Morocco100%
   • Quarter-final0%
   • Semi-final0%
   • Final0%
   • Lift the cup0%

   a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

8. 8Bosnia & HerzegovinaGroup B

   0%sealed 0% ·

   ▾▴

   Their run to the final · who they’d meet

   • Last 32100%
     • USA100%
   • Last 160%
   • Quarter-final0%
   • Semi-final0%
   • Final0%
   • Lift the cup0%

   a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

9. 9QatarGroup B

   0%sealed 0% ·

   ▾▴

   Their run to the final · who they’d meet

   • Last 320%
   • Last 160%
   • Quarter-final0%
   • Semi-final0%
   • Final0%
   • Lift the cup0%

   a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

10. 10BrazilGroup C

    0%sealed 5% ▼ −5

    ▾▴

    Their run to the final · who they’d meet

    • Last 32100%
      • Japan100%
    • Last 16100%
      • Norway100%
    • Quarter-final0%
    • Semi-final0%
    • Final0%
    • Lift the cup0%

    a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

11. 11MoroccoGroup C

    0%sealed 2% ▼ −2

    ▾▴

    Their run to the final · who they’d meet

    • Last 32100%
      • Netherlands100%
    • Last 16100%
      • Canada100%
    • Quarter-final100%
      • France100%
    • Semi-final0%
    • Final0%
    • Lift the cup0%

    a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

12. 12ScotlandGroup C

    0%sealed 0% ·

    ▾▴

    Their run to the final · who they’d meet

    • Last 320%
    • Last 160%
    • Quarter-final0%
    • Semi-final0%
    • Final0%
    • Lift the cup0%

    a knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw, the way a shoot-out splits it. Opponents are the likeliest sides at each round given they get there; they firm up as results land, then settle on the real draw.

20,000 simulations · each side played from its group through the fixed bracket to match 104 · a knockout is win chance plus half the draw

Title race sealed 2026-06-10, before a ball was kicked; the live numbers re-run the same engine and seed with played group games fixed to their real scores. draw: openfootball (CC0) · ratings: our national Elo from CC0 international results. The sealed call stays where we left it; nothing here is deleted.