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Ecuador

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Group E table →

Ecuador should get through

92%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 1st. Group E: Germany, Ivory Coast, Curaçao.

win Group E
46%
finish 2nd
34%
best 3rd
13%
Why 92%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Ecuador reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

2027

players

not used

Group games

  • against Ivory Coast

    rating 1814

    60%

    win

    23%

    draw

    18%

    lose

  • against Curaçao

    rating 1602

    77%

    win

    16%

    draw

    7%

    lose

  • against Germany

    rating 2007

    39%

    win

    26%

    draw

    35%

    lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

  • Hardest game: Germany, 39% to win.
  • Clean route: 80% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
  • Rating edge: +165 versus the Group E average.

Recent form

last 5 · 3W 1D 1L
  • W2–1vs Saudi Arabia
  • W3–0vs Guatemala
  • L0–1vs Ivory Coast
  • D0–0vs Curaçao
  • W2–1vs Germany

10 points from the last 5, 2.00 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

  • scored

    12

  • conceded

    6

  • goal diff

    +6

  • clean sheets

    4

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 4 with a clean sheet, 3 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →
  • Ecuador
    P. HincapiéDefender · 23
    2061quality rating±56 · T2▼ −3
    39 apps · 2956′WC perf +1
  • Ecuador
    W. PachoDefender · 24
    1995quality rating±55 · T2▼ −1
    35 apps · 3064′WC perf +1
  • Ecuador
    M. CaicedoMidfielder · 24
    1915quality rating±51 · T2▲ +2
    46 apps · 3948′WC perf +3
  • Ecuador
    F. TorresDefender · 28
    1890quality rating±64 · T2▲ +1
    26 apps · 1838′on club + age
  • Ecuador
    G. PlataAttacker · 25
    1859quality rating±55 · T2▼ −2
    23 apps · 1555′
  • Ecuador
    P. EstupiñánDefender · 27
    1815quality rating±61 · T2
    31 apps · 1965′
  • Ecuador
    J. OrdoñezDefender · 21
    1797quality rating±57 · T2▲ +2
    43 apps · 3505′
  • Ecuador
    N. AnguloAttacker · 22
    1796quality rating±61 · T2▲ +11
    15 apps · 811′WC perf +2
Full squadopenclose

Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.

The record

3 graded, none called right. They've made us look daft, and it stays up.

calls made
4
graded
3
called right
0/3

The calls

  • at Mexicowe called againstSealed
  • v Germanywe called against · 2–1Missed it
  • v Curaçaowe backed them · 0–0Missed it
  • at Ivory Coastwe backed them · 1–0Missed it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking
23rdFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Squad strength

all players →

roster Elo average

1785

16 rated players, 28560 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.

best-rated XI

1859

20453 total / 11

next seven

1621

8107 total / 5

How it can move a forecastopenclose

Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.

When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.

Squad value · our estimate

all players →

€7m–€27m

≈ €14m · 1 of 16 rated players priced

Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 1, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.

Signals

ProofXI rating

2023+30 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

23rdheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo
  • vs GermanyW 2–1 · 2026-06-25+37→ 1993
  • vs CuraçaoD 0–0 · 2026-06-20-24→ 1956
  • vs Ivory CoastL 0–1 · 2026-06-14-46→ 1980
  • vs GuatemalaW 3–0 · 2026-06-07+4→ 2026
  • vs Saudi ArabiaW 2–1 · 2026-05-30+3→ 2023
  • at NetherlandsD 1–1 · 2026-03-31+3→ 2020
  • vs MoroccoD 1–1 · 2026-03-27-1→ 2017
  • vs New ZealandW 2–0 · 2025-11-18+6→ 2019

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.