Ecuador

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Ecuador should get through

92%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 1st. Group E: Germany, Ivory Coast, Curaçao.

win Group E: 46%
finish 2nd: 34%
best 3rd: 13%

Why 92%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Ecuador reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

2027

players

not used

Group games

against Ivory Coast
rating 1814
60%
win
23%
draw
18%
lose
against Curaçao
rating 1602
77%
win
16%
draw
7%
lose
against Germany
rating 2007
39%
win
26%
draw
35%
lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

Hardest game: Germany, 39% to win.
Clean route: 80% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
Rating edge: +165 versus the Group E average.

Recent form

last 5 · 2W 1D 2L

W3–0vs Guatemala
L0–1vs Ivory Coast
D0–0vs Curaçao
W2–1vs Germany
L0–2at Mexico

7 points from the last 5, 1.40 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

scored
11
conceded
7
goal diff
+4
clean sheets
4

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 4 with a clean sheet, 4 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →

No sourced squad rows for this side yet. The list opens when a dated squad feed lands.

The record

4 calls locked. 1 of 4 graded calls landed right.

calls made: 4
graded: 4
called right: 1/4

The calls

at Mexicowe called against · 2–0Called it
v Germanywe called against · 2–1Missed it
v Curaçaowe backed them · 0–0Missed it
at Ivory Coastwe backed them · 1–0Missed it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking: 23rdFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-07-01

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Signals

ProofXI rating

1963-25 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

23rdheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo

at MexicoL 0–2 · 2026-06-30-30→ 1963
vs GermanyW 2–1 · 2026-06-25+37→ 1993
vs CuraçaoD 0–0 · 2026-06-20-24→ 1956
vs Ivory CoastL 0–1 · 2026-06-14-46→ 1980
vs GuatemalaW 3–0 · 2026-06-07+4→ 2027
vs Saudi ArabiaW 2–1 · 2026-05-30+3→ 2023
at NetherlandsD 1–1 · 2026-03-31+3→ 2020
vs MoroccoD 1–1 · 2026-03-27-1→ 2017

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.