MexicoWorld Cup forecast
Group A table →Mexico should get through
Most likely finish: 1st. Group A: South Korea, Czech Republic, South Africa.
- win Group A
- 50%
- finish 2nd
- 29%
- best 3rd
- 12%
Why 90%?openclose
One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Mexico reach the last 32.
runs
20,000
sealed
2026-06-10
venue
neutral
team rating
1976
players
not used
Group games
against South Africa
rating 1662
69%
win
20%
draw
11%
lose
against South Korea
rating 1880
47%
win
25%
draw
27%
lose
against Czech Republic
rating 1796
56%
win
24%
draw
20%
lose
These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.
Deep cuts
- Hardest game: South Korea, 47% to win.
- Clean route: 78% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
- Rating edge: +148 versus the Group A average.
Recent form
last 5 · 5W 0D 0L- W1–0
- W5–1
- W2–0
- W1–0
- W3–0
15 points from the last 5, 3.00 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.
Goals
last 10scored
20
conceded
2
goal diff
+18
clean sheets
8
Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 8 with a clean sheet, 1 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.
Players
ratings board →Full squadopenclose
- Alexis Vega
- Álvaro Fidalgo
- Armando González
- Brian Gutiérrez
- Carlos Acevedo
- César Huerta
- César Montes
- Edson Álvarez
- Erik Lira
- Gilberto Mora
- Guillermo Martínez
- Guillermo Ochoa
- Israel Reyes
- Jesús Gallardo
- Johan Vásquez
- Jorge Sánchez
- José Rangel
- Julián Quiñones
- Luis Chávez
- Luis Romo
- Mateo Chávez
- Obed Vargas
- Orbelín Pineda
- Raúl Jiménez
- Roberto Alvarado
- Santiago Giménez
The record
3 graded, 3 called right. A clean sheet, and we noticed.
- calls made
- 4
- graded
- 3
- called right
- 3/3
The calls
- v Ecuadorwe backed themSealed
- at Czech Republicwe backed them · 0–3Called it
- v South Koreawe backed them · 1–0Called it
- v South Africawe backed them · 2–0Called it
Context · sourced
- FIFA ranking
- 14thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29
Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.
Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose
Signals
ProofXI rating
1970+48 this year
Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.
World rank
14thup 1 place on the latest list
FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.
Rating moves · per match
World Football Elo- v Czech RepublicW 3–0 · 2026-06-24+13→ 2013
- v South KoreaW 1–0 · 2026-06-18+16→ 2000
- v South AfricaW 2–0 · 2026-06-11+8→ 1984
- v SerbiaW 5–1 · 2026-06-04+6→ 1976
- vs AustraliaW 1–0 · 2026-05-30+8→ 1970
- v GhanaW 2–0 · 2026-05-22+2→ 1961
- vs BelgiumD 1–1 · 2026-03-310→ 1959
- v PortugalD 0–0 · 2026-03-28-1→ 1960
How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.