NorwayWorld Cup forecast
Group I table →Norway are in good shape
Most likely finish: 2nd. Group I: France, Senegal, Iraq.
- win Group I
- 22%
- finish 2nd
- 33%
- best 3rd
- 20%
Why 75%?openclose
One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Norway reach the last 32.
runs
20,000
sealed
2026-06-10
venue
neutral
team rating
1956
players
not used
Group games
against Iraq
rating 1750
59%
win
23%
draw
18%
lose
against Senegal
rating 1920
41%
win
26%
draw
33%
lose
against France
rating 2122
21%
win
24%
draw
55%
lose
These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.
Deep cuts
- Hardest game: France, 21% to win.
- Clean route: 55% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
- Rating edge: +19 versus the Group I average.
Recent form
last 5 · 3W 1D 1L- W3–1
- D1–1
- W4–1
- W3–2
- L1–4
10 points from the last 5, 2.00 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.
Goals
last 10scored
22
conceded
14
goal diff
+8
clean sheets
1
Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 1 with a clean sheet, 1 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.
Players
ratings board →- In formNorwayE. HaalandAttacker · 252032quality rating±51 · T2▲ +2547 apps · 4003′WC perf +9
- In formNorwayM. ØdegaardMidfielder · 271997quality rating±51 · T2▲ +2233 apps · 2138′WC perf +4
- A. SørlothAttacker · 301921quality rating±51 · T2▲ +848 apps · 2976′WC perf −4
- In formNorwayK. AjerDefender · 271849quality rating±56 · T2▲ +1835 apps · 2503′WC perf +2
- J. RyersonDefender · 281851quality rating±56 · T2▲ +944 apps · 3220′
- Oscar BobbMidfielder · 221840quality rating±51 · T229 apps · 1215′
- S. BergeMidfielder · 271841quality rating±51 · T2▲ +1249 apps · 3853′WC perf −1
- A. SchjelderupAttacker · 211829quality rating±60 · T2▲ +436 apps · 2084′WC perf +2
Full squadopenclose
- F. Aursnes1823
- J. Strand Larsen1777
- A. Nusa1762
- T. Heggem1744
- P. Berg1746
- J. Hauge1757
- F. Bjørkan1739
- D. Møller Wolfe1710
- L. Østigård1682
- Ø. Nyland1647
- M. Pedersen1606
- K. Thorstvedt1600
- S. Langås1598
- M. Thorsby1569
- T. Aasgaard1575
- H. Falchener1572
- E. Selvik1532
Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.
The record
4 calls locked. 2 of 3 graded calls landed right.
- calls made
- 4
- graded
- 3
- called right
- 2/3
The calls
- at Ivory Coastwe backed themSealed
- v Francewe called a draw · 1–4Missed it
- v Senegalwe backed them · 3–2Called it
- at Iraqwe backed them · 1–4Called it
Context · sourced
- FIFA ranking
- 31stFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29
Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.
Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose
Squad strength
all players →roster Elo average
1752
25 rated players, 43789 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.
best-rated XI
1888
20769 total / 11
next seven
1709
11960 total / 7
How it can move a forecastopenclose
Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.
When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.
Squad value · our estimate
all players →€20m–€80m
≈ €40m · 7 of 25 rated players priced
Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 7, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.
Signals
ProofXI rating
1950+92 this year
Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.
World rank
31stheld on the latest list
FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.
Rating moves · per match
World Football Elo- vs FranceL 1–4 · 2026-06-26-31→ 1971
- vs SenegalW 3–2 · 2026-06-22+23→ 2002
- vs IraqW 4–1 · 2026-06-16+23→ 1979
- vs MoroccoD 1–1 · 2026-06-07+1→ 1956
- v SwedenW 3–1 · 2026-06-01+5→ 1955
- v SwitzerlandD 0–0 · 2026-03-31-3→ 1950
- at NetherlandsL 1–2 · 2026-03-27-6→ 1953
- at ItalyW 4–1 · 2025-11-16+49→ 1959
How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.