Premier League
projection, player impact, transfers and receipts
Provisional · not locked2026/27 season · pre-season preview, not on the record yet
Title race
- Arsenal45%
- Man City16%
- Aston Villa8%
Top-four race
- Arsenal85%
- Man City58%
- Aston Villa40%
Relegation watch
- Hull87%
- Ipswich55%
- Coventry48%
The projection board · every club, opened in place
Projection
League board
Card order = projected table · movement = baseline comparison · strength = model Elo
- Title pressure#1Arsenalfront-runnerProjected points79ptsTitle45%Top 485%Bottom 3<1%Club strength2064Top-end qualityPendingReport
MovementLast season 1st · projected 1st · no rank movement
Finish bandMost likely 1st · central band 1st-3rd
Confirmed transfersNo confirmed board move attached here yet.
Top 5 playersSquad feed pending for the top-five player board.
Squad strengthSquad feed pending for the squad-strength read.
Model signalClubElo base only · strength uncertainty ±90
Club pageFull club page
- #2Man Citytitle pressureProjected points69ptsTitle16%Top 458%Bottom 3<1%Club strength1971Top-end qualityPendingReport
MovementLast season 2nd · projected 2nd · no rank movement
Finish bandMost likely 2nd · central band 1st-7th
Confirmed transfersNo confirmed board move attached here yet.
Top 5 playersSquad feed pending for the top-five player board.
Squad strengthSquad feed pending for the squad-strength read.
Model signalClubElo base only · strength uncertainty ±90
Club pageFull club page
- Top-four chase#3Aston VillaUp 1title pressureProjected points64ptsTitle8%Top 440%Bottom 31%Club strength1921Top-end qualityPendingReport
MovementLast season 4th · projected 3rd · up 1
Finish bandMost likely 3rd · central band 1st-9th
Confirmed transfersNo confirmed board move attached here yet.
Top 5 playersSquad feed pending for the top-five player board.
Squad strengthSquad feed pending for the squad-strength read.
Model signalClubElo base only · strength uncertainty ±90
Club pageFull club page
- #4Man UnitedDown 1top-four lineProjected points63ptsTitle7%Top 437%Bottom 31%Club strength1915Top-end qualityPendingReport
MovementLast season 3rd · projected 4th · down 1
Finish bandMost likely 3rd · central band 1st-10th
Confirmed transfersNo confirmed board move attached here yet.
Top 5 playersSquad feed pending for the top-five player board.
Squad strengthSquad feed pending for the squad-strength read.
Model signalClubElo base only · strength uncertainty ±90
Club pageFull club page
- #5Liverpooltop-four lineProjected points62ptsTitle6%Top 436%Bottom 31%Club strength1911Top-end qualityPendingReport
MovementLast season 5th · projected 5th · no rank movement
Finish bandMost likely 4th · central band 1st-10th
Confirmed transfersNo confirmed board move attached here yet.
Top 5 playersSquad feed pending for the top-five player board.
Squad strengthSquad feed pending for the squad-strength read.
Model signalClubElo base only · strength uncertainty ±90
Club pageFull club page
- #6BournemouthEurope chaseProjected points58ptsTitle4%Top 424%Bottom 33%Club strength1872Top-end qualityPendingReport
MovementLast season 6th · projected 6th · no rank movement
Finish bandMost likely 5th · central band 2nd-13th
Confirmed transfersNo confirmed board move attached here yet.
Top 5 playersSquad feed pending for the top-five player board.
Squad strengthSquad feed pending for the squad-strength read.
Model signalClubElo base only · strength uncertainty ±90
Club pageFull club page
- Middle weather#7BrightonUp 1Europe chaseProjected points55ptsTitle2%Top 416%Bottom 35%Club strength1842Top-end qualityPendingReport
MovementLast season 8th · projected 7th · up 1
Finish bandMost likely 8th · central band 4th-15th
Confirmed transfersNo confirmed board move attached here yet.
Top 5 playersSquad feed pending for the top-five player board.
Squad strengthSquad feed pending for the squad-strength read.
Model signalClubElo base only · strength uncertainty ±90
Club pageFull club page
- #8BrentfordUp 1Europe chaseProjected points54ptsTitle2%Top 415%Bottom 35%Club strength1837Top-end qualityPendingReport
MovementLast season 9th · projected 8th · up 1
Finish bandMost likely 13th · central band 4th-15th
Confirmed transfersNo confirmed board move attached here yet.
Top 5 playersSquad feed pending for the top-five player board.
Squad strengthSquad feed pending for the squad-strength read.
Model signalClubElo base only · strength uncertainty ±90
Club pageFull club page
- #9NewcastleUp 3middle watchProjected points54ptsTitle2%Top 415%Bottom 35%Club strength1838Top-end qualityPendingReport
MovementLast season 12th · projected 9th · up 3
Finish bandMost likely 8th · central band 4th-15th
Confirmed transfersNo confirmed board move attached here yet.
Top 5 playersSquad feed pending for the top-five player board.
Squad strengthSquad feed pending for the squad-strength read.
Model signalClubElo base only · strength uncertainty ±90
Club pageFull club page
- #10Chelseamiddle watchProjected points54ptsTitle2%Top 414%Bottom 36%Club strength1831Top-end qualityPendingReport
MovementLast season 10th · projected 10th · no rank movement
Finish bandMost likely 9th · central band 5th-16th
Confirmed transfersNo confirmed board move attached here yet.
Top 5 playersSquad feed pending for the top-five player board.
Squad strengthSquad feed pending for the squad-strength read.
Model signalClubElo base only · strength uncertainty ±90
Club pageFull club page
- #11ForestUp 5middle watchProjected points53ptsTitle1%Top 412%Bottom 37%Club strength1822Top-end qualityPendingReport
MovementLast season 16th · projected 11th · up 5
Finish bandMost likely 9th · central band 5th-16th
Confirmed transfersNo confirmed board move attached here yet.
Top 5 playersSquad feed pending for the top-five player board.
Squad strengthSquad feed pending for the squad-strength read.
Model signalClubElo base only · strength uncertainty ±90
Club pageFull club page
- #12FulhamDown 1middle watchProjected points52ptsTitle1%Top 411%Bottom 38%Club strength1813Top-end qualityPendingReport
MovementLast season 11th · projected 12th · down 1
Finish bandMost likely 12th · central band 6th-17th
Confirmed transfersNo confirmed board move attached here yet.
Top 5 playersSquad feed pending for the top-five player board.
Squad strengthSquad feed pending for the squad-strength read.
Model signalClubElo base only · strength uncertainty ±90
Club pageFull club page
- #13Crystal PalaceUp 2middle watchProjected points51ptsTitle1%Top 410%Bottom 39%Club strength1804Top-end qualityPendingReport
MovementLast season 15th · projected 13th · up 2
Finish bandMost likely 15th · central band 7th-18th
Confirmed transfersNo confirmed board move attached here yet.
Top 5 playersSquad feed pending for the top-five player board.
Squad strengthSquad feed pending for the squad-strength read.
Model signalClubElo base only · strength uncertainty ±90
Club pageFull club page
- #14EvertonDown 1middle watchProjected points50ptsTitle1%Top 49%Bottom 310%Club strength1803Top-end qualityPendingReport
MovementLast season 13th · projected 14th · down 1
Finish bandMost likely 15th · central band 7th-18th
Confirmed transfersNo confirmed board move attached here yet.
Top 5 playersSquad feed pending for the top-five player board.
Squad strengthSquad feed pending for the squad-strength read.
Model signalClubElo base only · strength uncertainty ±90
Club pageFull club page
- #15LeedsDown 1middle watchProjected points50ptsTitle1%Top 48%Bottom 310%Club strength1797Top-end qualityPendingReport
MovementLast season 14th · projected 15th · down 1
Finish bandMost likely 15th · central band 7th-18th
Confirmed transfersNo confirmed board move attached here yet.
Top 5 playersSquad feed pending for the top-five player board.
Squad strengthSquad feed pending for the squad-strength read.
Model signalClubElo base only · strength uncertainty ±90
Club pageFull club page
- #16TottenhamUp 1danger fringeProjected points48ptsTitle1%Top 46%Bottom 314%Club strength1777Top-end qualityPendingReport
MovementLast season 17th · projected 16th · up 1
Finish bandMost likely 14th · central band 8th-18th
Confirmed transfersNo confirmed board move attached here yet.
Top 5 playersSquad feed pending for the top-five player board.
Squad strengthSquad feed pending for the squad-strength read.
Model signalClubElo base only · strength uncertainty ±90
Club pageFull club page
- Bottom three#17SunderlandDown 10in the fightProjected points43ptsTitle<1%Top 43%Bottom 323%Club strength1736Top-end qualityPendingReport
MovementLast season 7th · projected 17th · down 10
Finish bandMost likely 17th · central band 10th-19th
Confirmed transfersNo confirmed board move attached here yet.
Top 5 playersSquad feed pending for the top-five player board.
Squad strengthSquad feed pending for the squad-strength read.
Model signalClubElo base only · strength uncertainty ±90
Club pageFull club page
- #18CoventryNewtrap doorProjected points36ptsTitle<1%Top 4<1%Bottom 348%Club strength1662Top-end qualityPendingReport
MovementPromoted · projected 18th · new to this league board
Finish bandMost likely 19th · central band 15th-20th
Confirmed transfersNo confirmed board move attached here yet.
Top 5 playersSquad feed pending for the top-five player board.
Squad strengthSquad feed pending for the squad-strength read.
Model signalClubElo base only · strength uncertainty ±90
Club pageFull club page
- #19IpswichNewtrap doorProjected points34ptsTitle<1%Top 4<1%Bottom 355%Club strength1640Top-end qualityPendingReport
MovementPromoted · projected 19th · new to this league board
Finish bandMost likely 19th · central band 16th-20th
Confirmed transfersNo confirmed board move attached here yet.
Top 5 playersSquad feed pending for the top-five player board.
Squad strengthSquad feed pending for the squad-strength read.
Model signalClubElo base only · strength uncertainty ±90
Club pageFull club page
- #20HullNewtrap doorProjected points24ptsTitle0%Top 4<1%Bottom 387%Club strength1533Top-end qualityPendingReport
MovementPromoted · projected 20th · new to this league board
Finish bandMost likely 20th · central band 19th-20th
Confirmed transfersNo confirmed board move attached here yet.
Top 5 playersSquad feed pending for the top-five player board.
Squad strengthSquad feed pending for the squad-strength read.
Model signalClubElo base only · strength uncertainty ±90
Club pageFull club page
How the projection worksHow the projection works · hide
The league board is the projected table, rebuilt from 10,000 season simulations over every fixture. It stays provisional through the summer as sourced squad signals land; when matches start, it becomes the live projected final table while the Table tab shows the real standings.
Team strength is the badge-level ClubElo only (it does not yet see the squad), so each simulated season redraws a club's true rating within a 90-point band; that band tightens as squad-aware signals (market value, player ratings) are added.
Deeper reads: the full finishing heatmap and the shadow scorecard.
clubs + ratings: ClubElo (England) with the sourced 2026/27 promotion/relegation transition (promoted carry their Championship rating), as of the snapshot date. As of 2026-06-25. Provisional pre-season preview, not on the record yet. Title, top-four and relegation are read off the simulated finishing positions; projected points are the season mean. Clubs level on points are split by banked goal difference where the season has been played, otherwise by a fair draw.