Cape VerdeWorld Cup forecast
Group H table →Cape Verde need a run
Most likely finish: 4th. Group H: Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia.
- win Group H
- 2%
- finish 2nd
- 11%
- best 3rd
- 20%
Why 34%?openclose
One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Cape Verde reach the last 32.
runs
20,000
sealed
2026-06-10
venue
neutral
team rating
1653
players
not used
Group games
against Spain
rating 2210
3%
win
12%
draw
85%
lose
against Uruguay
rating 1974
11%
win
19%
draw
70%
lose
against Saudi Arabia
rating 1685
34%
win
26%
draw
40%
lose
These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.
Deep cuts
- Hardest game: Spain, 3% to win.
- Clean route: 13% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
- Rating edge: -227 versus the Group H average.
Recent form
last 5 · 1W 3D 1L- W3–0
- L0–3
- D0–0
- D2–2
- D0–0
6 points from the last 5, 1.20 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.
Goals
last 10scored
12
conceded
11
goal diff
+1
clean sheets
5
Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 5 with a clean sheet, 4 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.
Players
ratings board →- João PauloMidfielder · 271548quality rating±59 · T2▲ +47 apps · 522′
- Wagner PinaDefender · 231535quality rating±60 · T2▼ −132 apps · 2538′WC perf −2
- In formCape VerdeDiney BorgesDefender · 301521quality rating±67 · T2▲ +294 apps · 371′WC perf +2
- In formCape VerdeKevin PinaMidfielder · 281514quality rating±60 · T2▲ +208 apps · 669′WC perf +2
- Hélio VarelaMidfielder · 231523quality rating±77 · T2▲ +55 apps · 231′WC perf +1
- In formCape VerdeVózinhaGoalkeeper · 391502quality rating±58 · T2▲ +248 apps · 761′WC perf +3
- In formCape VerdePicoDefender · 331511quality rating±71 · T2▲ +323 apps · 281′WC perf +3
- Jamiro MonteiroMidfielder · 321493quality rating±56 · T2▲ +629 apps · 1872′WC perf −3
Full squadopenclose
- Deroy Duarte1496
- L. Duarte1514
- Nuno da Costa1494
- Willy Semedo1495
- Garry Rodrigues1478
- Ryan Mendes1460
- D. Livramento1459
Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.
The record
3 calls locked. 1 of 3 graded calls landed right.
- calls made
- 3
- graded
- 3
- called right
- 1/3
The calls
- v Saudi Arabiawe called a draw · 0–0Called it
- at Uruguaywe called against · 2–2Missed it
- at Spainwe called against · 0–0Missed it
Context · sourced
- FIFA ranking
- 67thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29
Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.
Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose
Squad strength
all players →roster Elo average
1527
15 rated players, 22898 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.
best-rated XI
1542
16967 total / 11
next seven
1483
5931 total / 4
How it can move a forecastopenclose
Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.
When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.
Signals
ProofXI rating
1685+71 this year
Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.
World rank
67thup 2 places on the latest list
FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.
Rating moves · per match
World Football Elo- vs Saudi ArabiaD 0–0 · 2026-06-260→ 1701
- vs UruguayD 2–2 · 2026-06-21+20→ 1701
- vs SpainD 0–0 · 2026-06-15+28→ 1681
- vs BermudaL 0–3 · 2026-06-06-31→ 1654
- vs SerbiaW 3–0 · 2026-05-31+25→ 1685
- vs FinlandD 1–1 · 2026-03-30-2→ 1660
- vs ChileL 2–4 · 2026-03-27-14→ 1662
- vs EgyptD 1–1 · 2025-11-17+4→ 1676
How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.