Bracket
the road to the final · who makes the last 32
Every tie, R32 to the final, with the side likeliest to fill each line. Redrawn live as group results land; a slot settles on the real team once its tie is decided.
rings inward · last 32 · last 16 · quarters · semis · final
Round of 32
16 ties- 28 Jun#73South AfricaCanada
- 29 Jun#74GermanyParaguay
- 29 Jun#75NetherlandsMorocco
- 29 Jun#76BrazilJapan
- 30 Jun#77FranceSweden
- 30 Jun#78Ivory CoastNorway
- 30 Jun#79MexicoEcuador
- 1 Jul#80EnglandDR Congo
- 1 Jul#81USABosnia & Herzegovina
- 1 Jul#82BelgiumSenegal
- 2 Jul#83PortugalCroatia
- 2 Jul#84SpainAustria
- 2 Jul#85SwitzerlandAlgeria
- 3 Jul#86ArgentinaCape Verde
- 3 Jul#87ColombiaGhana
- 3 Jul#88AustraliaEgypt
Round of 16
8 ties- 4 Jul#89Germany60%France81%
- 4 Jul#90CanadaNetherlands53%
- 5 Jul#91BrazilNorway65%
- 5 Jul#92Ecuador56%England79%
- 6 Jul#93Portugal56%Spain79%
- 6 Jul#94USA67%Belgium55%
- 7 Jul#95Argentina90%Australia60%
- 7 Jul#96Switzerland60%Colombia86%
Quarter-finals
4 ties- 9 Jul#97France53%Canada39%
- 10 Jul#98Spain56%Belgium38%
- 11 Jul#99Brazil66%England46%
- 11 Jul#100Argentina72%Colombia55%
Semi-finals
2 ties- 14 Jul#101France35%Spain44%
- 15 Jul#102Brazil36%Argentina49%
Final
- 19 Jul#104Spain30%Argentina32%
20,000 simulations · the bracket is fixed before kickoff (openfootball, CC0); each slot shows the likeliest occupant from the same run as the title race. Live numbers re-run the same engine and seed with played group games fixed to their real scores (results: openfootball CC0, through 2026-06-27). draw: openfootball (CC0) · ratings: our national Elo from CC0 international results. A knockout has no draw: each tie is the model’s neutral win chance plus half the draw.