UruguayWorld Cup forecast
Group H table →Uruguay should get through
Most likely finish: 2nd. Group H: Spain, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde.
- win Group H
- 22%
- finish 2nd
- 53%
- best 3rd
- 13%
Why 88%?openclose
One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Uruguay reach the last 32.
runs
20,000
sealed
2026-06-10
venue
neutral
team rating
1974
players
not used
Group games
against Saudi Arabia
rating 1685
67%
win
20%
draw
13%
lose
against Cape Verde
rating 1653
70%
win
19%
draw
11%
lose
against Spain
rating 2210
16%
win
22%
draw
62%
lose
These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.
Deep cuts
- Hardest game: Spain, 16% to win.
- Clean route: 75% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
- Rating edge: +94 versus the Group H average.
Recent form
last 5 · 0W 4D 1L- D1–1
- D0–0
- D1–1
- D2–2
- L0–1
4 points from the last 5, 0.80 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.
Goals
last 10scored
8
conceded
11
goal diff
-3
clean sheets
4
Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 4 with a clean sheet, 4 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.
Players
ratings board →- F. ValverdeMidfielder · 272004quality rating±51 · T2▼ −746 apps · 3838′
- M. UgarteMidfielder · 241974quality rating±51 · T2▼ −738 apps · 2203′
- S. RochetGoalkeeper · 321927quality rating±62 · T2▼ −226 apps · 2369′
- M. AraújoMidfielder · 251880quality rating±56 · T2▲ +348 apps · 3765′WC perf +9
- N. de la CruzMidfielder · 281886quality rating±63 · T2▼ −520 apps · 744′
- R. BentancurMidfielder · 281864quality rating±51 · T2▼ −1037 apps · 2664′
- M. OliveraDefender · 281864quality rating±55 · T2▼ −937 apps · 2385′WC perf +1
- A. CanobbioMidfielder · 271856quality rating±56 · T2▼ −1417 apps · 1300′WC perf −2
Full squadopenclose
- G. Varela1850
- F. Muslera1733
- D. Núñez1670
- J. Sanabria1644
- S. Cáceres1641
- B. Rodríguez1606
- F. Viñas1557
Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.
The record
3 calls locked. 1 of 3 graded calls landed right.
- calls made
- 3
- graded
- 3
- called right
- 1/3
The calls
- v Spainwe called against · 0–1Called it
- v Cape Verdewe backed them · 2–2Missed it
- at Saudi Arabiawe backed them · 1–1Missed it
Context · sourced
- FIFA ranking
- 16thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29
Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.
Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose
Squad strength
all players →roster Elo average
1786
15 rated players, 26784 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.
best-rated XI
1861
20469 total / 11
next seven
1579
6315 total / 4
How it can move a forecastopenclose
Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.
When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.
Signals
ProofXI rating
1974-25 this year
Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.
World rank
16thup 1 place on the latest list
FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.
Rating moves · per match
World Football Elo- vs SpainL 0–1 · 2026-06-26-11→ 1923
- vs Cape VerdeD 2–2 · 2026-06-21-20→ 1934
- vs Saudi ArabiaD 1–1 · 2026-06-15-20→ 1954
- vs AlgeriaD 0–0 · 2026-03-31-3→ 1974
- at EnglandD 1–1 · 2026-03-27+6→ 1978
- at United StatesL 1–5 · 2025-11-18-22→ 1972
- at MexicoD 0–0 · 2025-11-15+2→ 1994
- vs UzbekistanW 2–1 · 2025-10-13+6→ 1992
How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.