Croatia

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Croatia are in good shape

84%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 2nd. Group L: England, Panama, Ghana.

win Group L: 29%
finish 2nd: 37%
best 3rd: 19%

Why 84%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Croatia reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

1964

players

not used

Group games

against England
rating 2082
25%
win
25%
draw
50%
lose
against Panama
rating 1848
50%
win
25%
draw
25%
lose
against Ghana
rating 1625
71%
win
19%
draw
10%
lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

Hardest game: England, 25% to win.
Clean route: 66% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
Rating edge: +84 versus the Group L average.

Recent form

last 5 · 3W 0D 2L

W2–1v Slovenia
L2–4vs England
W1–0vs Panama
W2–1vs Ghana
L1–2vs Portugal

9 points from the last 5, 1.80 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

scored
17
conceded
17
goal diff
0
clean sheets
1

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 1 with a clean sheet, 1 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →

No sourced squad rows for this side yet. The list opens when a dated squad feed lands.

The record

4 graded, 4 called right. A clean sheet, and we noticed.

calls made: 4
graded: 4
called right: 4/4

The calls

at Portugalwe called against · 2–1Called it
v Ghanawe backed them · 2–1Called it
at Panamawe backed them · 0–1Called it
at Englandwe called against · 4–2Called it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking: 11thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-07-01

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Signals

ProofXI rating

1941-34 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

11thheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo

vs PortugalL 1–2 · 2026-07-02-23→ 1941
vs GhanaW 2–1 · 2026-06-27+11→ 1965
vs PanamaW 1–0 · 2026-06-23+19→ 1953
vs EnglandL 2–4 · 2026-06-17-30→ 1934
v SloveniaW 2–1 · 2026-06-07+3→ 1964
v BelgiumL 0–2 · 2026-06-02-21→ 1961
vs BrazilL 1–3 · 2026-03-31-13→ 1982
vs ColombiaW 2–1 · 2026-03-26+13→ 1995

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.