CroatiaWorld Cup forecast
Group L table →Croatia are in good shape
Most likely finish: 2nd. Group L: England, Panama, Ghana.
- win Group L
- 29%
- finish 2nd
- 37%
- best 3rd
- 19%
Why 84%?openclose
One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Croatia reach the last 32.
runs
20,000
sealed
2026-06-10
venue
neutral
team rating
1964
players
not used
Group games
against England
rating 2082
25%
win
25%
draw
50%
lose
against Panama
rating 1848
50%
win
25%
draw
25%
lose
against Ghana
rating 1625
71%
win
19%
draw
10%
lose
These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.
Deep cuts
- Hardest game: England, 25% to win.
- Clean route: 66% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
- Rating edge: +84 versus the Group L average.
Recent form
last 5 · 3W 0D 2L- L0–2
- W2–1
- L2–4
- W1–0
- W2–1
9 points from the last 5, 1.80 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.
Goals
last 10scored
19
conceded
15
goal diff
+4
clean sheets
2
Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 2 with a clean sheet, 1 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.
Players
ratings board →- J. StanisicDefender · 252042quality rating±56 · T2▼ −238 apps · 2796′WC perf −3
- J. GvardiolDefender · 232020quality rating±56 · T2▼ −535 apps · 2620′WC perf −2
- M. KovacicMidfielder · 311986quality rating±51 · T2▲ +620 apps · 1130′WC perf +1
- P. SucicMidfielder · 221958quality rating±57 · T2▲ +538 apps · 2246′WC perf +4
- M. BaturinaMidfielder · 221856quality rating±57 · T2▲ +1041 apps · 2220′WC perf +5
- I. MatanovicAttacker · 221817quality rating±62 · T2▼ −131 apps · 1750′WC perf −1
- I. PerisicMidfielder · 361798quality rating±51 · T2▲ +543 apps · 2944′WC perf +2
- L. ModricMidfielder · 401792quality rating±51 · T2▲ +550 apps · 3790′WC perf +4
Full squadopenclose
- A. Budimir1794
- M. Pongracic1775
- N. Vlasic1745
- J. Sutalo1711
- D. Livakovic1705
- P. Musa1652
- M. Pasalic1640
Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.
The record
3 graded, 3 called right. A clean sheet, and we noticed.
- calls made
- 3
- graded
- 3
- called right
- 3/3
The calls
- v Ghanawe backed them · 2–1Called it
- at Panamawe backed them · 0–1Called it
- at Englandwe called against · 4–2Called it
Context · sourced
- FIFA ranking
- 11thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29
Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.
Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose
Squad strength
all players →roster Elo average
1815
15 rated players, 27228 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.
best-rated XI
1869
20564 total / 11
next seven
1666
6664 total / 4
How it can move a forecastopenclose
Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.
When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.
Signals
ProofXI rating
1982+22 this year
Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.
World rank
11thheld on the latest list
FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.
Rating moves · per match
World Football Elo- vs GhanaW 2–1 · 2026-06-27+11→ 1964
- vs PanamaW 1–0 · 2026-06-23+19→ 1953
- vs EnglandL 2–4 · 2026-06-17-30→ 1934
- v SloveniaW 2–1 · 2026-06-07+3→ 1964
- v BelgiumL 0–2 · 2026-06-02-21→ 1961
- vs BrazilL 1–3 · 2026-03-31-13→ 1982
- vs ColombiaW 2–1 · 2026-03-26+13→ 1995
- at MontenegroW 3–2 · 2025-11-17+4→ 1982
How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.