GhanaWorld Cup forecast
Group L table →Ghana need a run
Most likely finish: 4th. Group L: England, Croatia, Panama.
- win Group L
- 2%
- finish 2nd
- 8%
- best 3rd
- 12%
Why 21%?openclose
One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Ghana reach the last 32.
runs
20,000
sealed
2026-06-10
venue
neutral
team rating
1625
players
not used
Group games
against Panama
rating 1848
17%
win
22%
draw
61%
lose
against England
rating 2082
6%
win
15%
draw
79%
lose
against Croatia
rating 1964
10%
win
19%
draw
71%
lose
These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.
Deep cuts
- Hardest game: England, 6% to win.
- Clean route: 9% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
- Rating edge: -255 versus the Group L average.
Recent form
last 5 · 1W 2D 2L- L0–2
- D1–1
- W1–0
- D0–0
- L1–2
5 points from the last 5, 1.00 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.
Goals
last 10scored
6
conceded
15
goal diff
-9
clean sheets
3
Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 3 with a clean sheet, 4 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.
Players
ratings board →- A. SemenyoAttacker · 251966quality rating±51 · T2▼ −240 apps · 3437′WC perf −5
- K. SulemanaAttacker · 231785quality rating±51 · T2▼ −428 apps · 1190′WC perf −3
- T. ParteyMidfielder · 321736quality rating±51 · T2▼ −128 apps · 1161′WC perf −1
- E. NuamahAttacker · 221742quality rating±79 · T2▲ +56 apps · 168′
- I. WilliamsAttacker · 311716quality rating±51 · T2▲ +132 apps · 2249′WC perf −3
- B. Thomas-AsanteAttacker · 271665quality rating±86 · T2▼ −42 apps · 70′WC perf −1
- J. AdjeteyDefender · 221636quality rating±64 · T2▲ +210 apps · 572′WC perf −4
- K. Peprah OppongDefender · 211625quality rating±56 · T2▼ −433 apps · 2662′WC perf −3
Full squadopenclose
Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.
The record
3 calls locked. 1 of 3 graded calls landed right.
- calls made
- 3
- graded
- 3
- called right
- 1/3
The calls
- at Croatiawe called against · 2–1Called it
- at Englandwe called against · 0–0Missed it
- v Panamawe called against · 1–0Missed it
Context · sourced
- FIFA ranking
- 73rdFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29
Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.
Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose
Squad strength
all players →roster Elo average
1633
20 rated players, 32659 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.
best-rated XI
1694
18631 total / 11
next seven
1564
10950 total / 7
How it can move a forecastopenclose
Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.
When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.
Squad value · our estimate
all players →€19m–€75m
≈ €38m · 5 of 20 rated players priced
Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 5, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.
Signals
ProofXI rating
1619+22 this year
Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.
World rank
73rdup 1 place on the latest list
FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.
Rating moves · per match
World Football Elo- vs CroatiaL 1–2 · 2026-06-27-11→ 1686
- vs EnglandD 0–0 · 2026-06-23+26→ 1697
- vs PanamaW 1–0 · 2026-06-17+47→ 1672
- at WalesD 1–1 · 2026-06-02+6→ 1625
- at MexicoL 0–2 · 2026-05-22-2→ 1619
- at GermanyL 1–2 · 2026-03-30-1→ 1621
- at AustriaL 1–5 · 2026-03-27-4→ 1622
- at South KoreaL 0–1 · 2025-11-18-2→ 1627
How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.