CanadaWorld Cup forecast
Group B table →Canada should get through
Most likely finish: 2nd. Group B: Switzerland, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Qatar.
- win Group B
- 37%
- finish 2nd
- 39%
- best 3rd
- 13%
Why 89%?openclose
One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Canada reach the last 32.
runs
20,000
sealed
2026-06-10
venue
neutral
team rating
1895
players
not used
Group games
against Bosnia & Herzegovina
rating 1649
63%
win
22%
draw
15%
lose
against Qatar
rating 1567
70%
win
19%
draw
11%
lose
against Switzerland
rating 1960
30%
win
26%
draw
44%
lose
These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.
Deep cuts
- Hardest game: Switzerland, 30% to win.
- Clean route: 76% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
- Rating edge: +127 versus the Group B average.
Recent form
last 5 · 2W 2D 1L- D1–1
- D1–1
- W6–0
- L1–2
- W1–0
8 points from the last 5, 1.60 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.
Goals
last 10scored
16
conceded
6
goal diff
+10
clean sheets
6
Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 6 with a clean sheet, 2 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.
Team news · sourced
Alphonso Davies returns as Canada approach World Cup moment of destiny — Los Angeles date offers Bayern Munich player the chance to heal a wound that opened at this same stadium last March
theguardian.com · 2026-06-29
A sourced read on availability, picked for relevance and gated fresh. It never touches the call.
Players
ratings board →- A. DaviesDefender · 251960quality rating±63 · T2▲ +123 apps · 1225′WC perf −1
- T. BuchananMidfielder · 261816quality rating±51 · T2▲ +1453 apps · 2816′WC perf +1
- T. OluwaseyiAttacker · 251796quality rating±57 · T2▼ −242 apps · 1656′WC perf −3
- J. DavidAttacker · 251774quality rating±54 · T2▲ +1456 apps · 3459′
- In formCanadaC. LarinAttacker · 301732quality rating±51 · T2▲ +1728 apps · 1216′WC perf +2
- M. BombitoDefender · 261671quality rating±59 · T2▲ +916 apps · 1205′WC perf −1
- L. MillarMidfielder · 261624quality rating±64 · T2▲ +315 apps · 599′WC perf +1
- In formCanadaS. EustáquioMidfielder · 291600quality rating±51 · T2▲ +2334 apps · 1969′WC perf +5
Full squadopenclose
- P. David1612
- A. Johnston1611
- A. Ahmed1605
- D. Cornelius1600
- N. Saliba1595
- J. Shaffelburg1604
- M. Crépeau1597
- R. Laryea1592
- N. Sigur1598
- M. Choinière1590
- L. De Fougerolles1557
Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.
The record
4 calls locked. 2 of 4 graded calls landed right.
- calls made
- 4
- graded
- 4
- called right
- 2/4
The calls
- at South Africawe backed them · 0–1Called it
- at Switzerlandwe called a draw · 2–1Missed it
- v Qatarwe backed them · 6–0Called it
- v Bosnia & Herzegovinawe backed them · 1–1Missed it
Context · sourced
- FIFA ranking
- 30thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29
Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.
Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose
Squad strength
all players →roster Elo average
1663
19 rated players, 31602 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.
best-rated XI
1720
18920 total / 11
next seven
1593
11152 total / 7
How it can move a forecastopenclose
Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.
When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.
Squad value · our estimate
all players →€34m–€131m
≈ €66m · 8 of 19 rated players priced
Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 8, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.
Signals
ProofXI rating
1892+11 this year
Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.
World rank
30thheld on the latest list
FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.
Rating moves · per match
World Football Elo- vs South AfricaW 1–0 · 2026-06-28+18→ 1871
- v SwitzerlandL 1–2 · 2026-06-24-33→ 1852
- v QatarW 6–0 · 2026-06-18+13→ 1885
- v Bosnia and HerzegovinaD 1–1 · 2026-06-12-23→ 1872
- v Republic of IrelandD 1–1 · 2026-06-05-6→ 1895
- v UzbekistanW 2–0 · 2026-06-01+9→ 1901
- v TunisiaD 0–0 · 2026-03-31-6→ 1892
- v IcelandD 2–2 · 2026-03-28-8→ 1899
How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.