TunisiaWorld Cup forecast
Group F table →Tunisia need a run
Most likely finish: 4th. Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden.
- win Group F
- 7%
- finish 2nd
- 15%
- best 3rd
- 19%
Why 41%?openclose
One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Tunisia reach the last 32.
runs
20,000
sealed
2026-06-10
venue
neutral
team rating
1738
players
not used
Group games
against Sweden
rating 1765
34%
win
26%
draw
40%
lose
against Japan
rating 1993
15%
win
21%
draw
64%
lose
against Netherlands
rating 2012
14%
win
21%
draw
66%
lose
These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.
Deep cuts
- Hardest game: Netherlands, 14% to win.
- Clean route: 22% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
- Rating edge: -139 versus the Group F average.
Recent form
last 5 · 0W 0D 5L- L0–1
- L0–5
- L1–5
- L0–4
- L1–3
0 points from the last 5, 0.00 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.
Goals
last 10scored
7
conceded
23
goal diff
-16
clean sheets
2
Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 2 with a clean sheet, 4 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.
Players
ratings board →- M. TalbiDefender · 271715quality rating±55 · T2▼ −1837 apps · 3343′
- H. MejbriMidfielder · 221705quality rating±51 · T2▼ −1231 apps · 1606′WC perf +5
- E. SkhiriMidfielder · 301713quality rating±56 · T2▼ −2933 apps · 2155′WC perf −3
- Ismaël GharbiAttacker · 211687quality rating±68 · T2▼ −2711 apps · 473′WC perf −3
- R. KhediraMidfielder · 311664quality rating±58 · T2▼ −1936 apps · 3071′WC perf −4
- A. AbdiDefender · 321649quality rating±56 · T2▼ −2429 apps · 1755′WC perf +1
- E. AchouriMidfielder · 261664quality rating±75 · T2▼ −107 apps · 339′WC perf −1
- A. Ben SlimaneMidfielder · 241641quality rating±63 · T2▼ −468 apps · 567′WC perf −2
Full squadopenclose
- Y. Valery1595
- S. Tounekti1598
- A. Ben Hmida1584
- H. Mastouri1591
- M. Ben Ouanes1572
- A. Dahmen1577
- H. Mahmoud1583
- F. Chaouat1577
Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.
The record
3 graded, 3 called right. A clean sheet, and we noticed.
- calls made
- 3
- graded
- 3
- called right
- 3/3
The calls
- v Netherlandswe called against · 1–3Called it
- v Japanwe called against · 0–4Called it
- at Swedenwe called against · 5–1Called it
Context · sourced
- FIFA ranking
- 45thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29
Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.
Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose
Squad strength
all players →roster Elo average
1595
16 rated players, 25520 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.
best-rated XI
1617
17784 total / 11
next seven
1547
7736 total / 5
How it can move a forecastopenclose
Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.
When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.
Squad value · our estimate
all players →€24m–€93m
≈ €47m · 5 of 16 rated players priced
Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 5, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.
Signals
ProofXI rating
1748+19 this year
Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.
World rank
45thdown 1 place on the latest list
FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.
Rating moves · per match
World Football Elo- vs NetherlandsL 1–3 · 2026-06-25-10→ 1660
- vs JapanL 0–4 · 2026-06-20-16→ 1670
- vs SwedenL 1–5 · 2026-06-14-52→ 1686
- at BelgiumL 0–5 · 2026-06-06-5→ 1738
- at AustriaL 0–1 · 2026-06-01-4→ 1744
- at CanadaD 0–0 · 2026-03-31+6→ 1748
- vs HaitiW 1–0 · 2026-03-28+9→ 1741
- vs MaliD 1–1 · 2026-01-03-1→ 1732
How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.