Austria

the newsroom’s record on this side · all sides · today

World Cup forecast

Austria are in a fight

66%reach last 32

Most likely finish: 2nd. Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Jordan.

win Group J: 13%
finish 2nd: 33%
best 3rd: 20%

Why 66%?openclose

One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Austria reach the last 32.

runs

20,000

sealed

2026-06-10

venue

neutral

team rating

1894

players

not used

Group games

against Jordan
rating 1775
50%
win
25%
draw
25%
lose
against Argentina
rating 2188
12%
win
20%
draw
67%
lose
against Algeria
rating 1873
39%
win
26%
draw
35%
lose

These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.

Deep cuts

Hardest game: Argentina, 12% to win.
Clean route: 46% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
Rating edge: -38 versus the Group J average.

Recent form

last 5 · 2W 1D 2L

W1–0v Tunisia
W3–1vs Jordan
L0–2vs Argentina
D3–3vs Algeria
L0–3vs Spain

7 points from the last 5, 1.40 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.

Goals

last 10

scored
16
conceded
12
goal diff
+4
clean sheets
3

Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 3 with a clean sheet, 3 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.

Players

ratings board →

No sourced squad rows for this side yet. The list opens when a dated squad feed lands.

The record

4 graded, 4 called right. A clean sheet, and we noticed.

calls made: 4
graded: 4
called right: 4/4

The calls

at Spainwe called against · 3–0Called it
at Algeriawe called a draw · 3–3Called it
at Argentinawe called against · 2–0Called it
v Jordanwe backed them · 3–1Called it

Context · sourced

FIFA ranking: 24thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-07-01

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.

Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose

Signals

ProofXI rating

1891-15 this year

Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.

World rank

24thheld on the latest list

FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.

Rating moves · per match

World Football Elo

vs SpainL 0–3 · 2026-07-02-16→ 1891
vs AlgeriaD 3–3 · 2026-06-27-2→ 1908
vs ArgentinaL 0–2 · 2026-06-22-15→ 1909
vs JordanW 3–1 · 2026-06-16+30→ 1924
v TunisiaW 1–0 · 2026-06-01+4→ 1894
v South KoreaW 1–0 · 2026-03-31+7→ 1890
v GhanaW 5–1 · 2026-03-27+4→ 1883
v Bosnia and HerzegovinaD 1–1 · 2025-11-18-16→ 1879

How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.