AustriaWorld Cup forecast
Group J table →Austria are in a fight
Most likely finish: 2nd. Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Jordan.
- win Group J
- 13%
- finish 2nd
- 33%
- best 3rd
- 20%
Why 66%?openclose
One run means every group match is played once from the rating gaps, then the table is counted. Repeat it and count how often Austria reach the last 32.
runs
20,000
sealed
2026-06-10
venue
neutral
team rating
1894
players
not used
Group games
against Jordan
rating 1775
50%
win
25%
draw
25%
lose
against Argentina
rating 2188
12%
win
20%
draw
67%
lose
against Algeria
rating 1873
39%
win
26%
draw
35%
lose
These games use the rating gap only. Player ratings stay out until a sourced lineup can explain the adjustment.
Deep cuts
- Hardest game: Argentina, 12% to win.
- Clean route: 46% to finish top two, no third-place rescue needed.
- Rating edge: -38 versus the Group J average.
Recent form
last 5 · 3W 1D 1L- W1–0
- W1–0
- W3–1
- L0–2
- D3–3
10 points from the last 5, 2.00 per game. Sourced results, newest on the right.
Goals
last 10scored
26
conceded
9
goal diff
+17
clean sheets
4
Over the last 10 on the open results feed, 4 with a clean sheet, 2 without scoring. Sourced facts, never simulated.
Players
ratings board →- K. LaimerDefender · 281985quality rating±55 · T2▼ −146 apps · 3363′WC perf −1
- D. AlabaDefender · 331893quality rating±57 · T2▲ +524 apps · 1455′WC perf +2
- C. ChukwuemekaMidfielder · 221851quality rating±63 · T231 apps · 1032′WC perf −1
- M. SabitzerMidfielder · 311824quality rating±51 · T2▲ +243 apps · 3358′
- F. GrillitschMidfielder · 301827quality rating±62 · T2▼ −237 apps · 1697′WC perf −1
- K. DansoDefender · 271811quality rating±56 · T2▼ −532 apps · 2129′WC perf −2
- N. SeiwaldMidfielder · 241804quality rating±55 · T253 apps · 4592′WC perf −1
- X. SchlagerMidfielder · 281794quality rating±57 · T2▼ −235 apps · 2574′WC perf −1
Full squadopenclose
- P. Wanner1785
- P. Lienhart1765
- A. Prass1738
- S. Posch1727
- P. Mwene1708
- R. Schmid1686
- M. Friedl1676
- P. Wimmer1674
- M. Gregoritsch1658
- A. Schlager1575
- S. Kalajdzic1594
- M. Arnautovic1563
Our roster Elo: seeded from the team’s rating, moved only by matches actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call. The board: all rated players.
The record
3 graded, 3 called right. A clean sheet, and we noticed.
- calls made
- 3
- graded
- 3
- called right
- 3/3
The calls
- at Algeriawe called a draw · 3–3Called it
- at Argentinawe called against · 2–0Called it
- v Jordanwe backed them · 3–1Called it
Context · sourced
- FIFA ranking
- 24thFIFA via Transfermarkt · 2026-06-29
Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches the call.
Under the hoodthe shadow numbers and how the rating moves. context, never a call.openclose
Squad strength
all players →roster Elo average
1753
20 rated players, 35069 total points. A squad read, not a lineup guess.
best-rated XI
1842
20257 total / 11
next seven
1664
11650 total / 7
How it can move a forecastopenclose
Best-rated XI is the strongest 11 rated players, not a predicted lineup. The number is a pressure test for squad ceiling.
When lineups are sourced, confirmed XI can be compared with expected XI. The delta is shrunk, capped, shown, then applied.
Squad value · our estimate
all players →€6.4m–€25m
≈ €13m · 3 of 20 rated players priced
Our own fee model, summed over the squad: the level each plays at, his age, role and what we’ve measured of him. Not a valuation site’s numbers; we don’t republish those. A band, not a point. Contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Players without a sourced club tier aren’t priced (so this totals 3, not the whole squad). Context only. It never touches a call.
Signals
ProofXI rating
1890-8 this year
Our results-based team rating. Higher is stronger.
World rank
24thheld on the latest list
FIFA ranking, list of 2026-06-12. Lower is stronger.
Rating moves · per match
World Football Elo- vs AlgeriaD 3–3 · 2026-06-27-2→ 1907
- vs ArgentinaL 0–2 · 2026-06-22-15→ 1909
- vs JordanW 3–1 · 2026-06-16+30→ 1924
- v TunisiaW 1–0 · 2026-06-01+4→ 1894
- v South KoreaW 1–0 · 2026-03-31+7→ 1890
- v GhanaW 5–1 · 2026-03-27+4→ 1883
- v Bosnia and HerzegovinaD 1–1 · 2025-11-18-16→ 1879
- at CyprusW 2–0 · 2025-11-15+5→ 1895
How each result moved this side’s rating, from the same forward-only engine the call uses, folded from the open international-results feed. Context, never a call.