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Sat 27 Jun · 00:00 UTC · 02:00 CEST · Group H

full time

Uruguay0–1Spain

1974-25rating2217+1116thup 1fifa2nd
F. Valverde1998talismanMikel Merino2113

Estadio Akron, Guadalajara · 48,071 seats

Called it. As forecast.

Spain to win

home 15%draw 21%away 64% ✓

sealed Thu 25 Jun · 08:57 UTC · 10:57 CEST · nothing deleted

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:57:48 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

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The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Uruguay

ProofXI rating

1974-25 this year

1999 → 1974 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

16thup 1 place on the latest list

16th → 16th · 6 lists

Spain

ProofXI rating

2217+11 this year

2206 → 2217 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

2ndheld on the latest list

1st → 2nd · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Spain by 243 points

Head to head

Spain have had the better of this fixture.

11 prior meetings · Uruguay 0, drawn 5, Spain 6 · goals 8-17

  1. 2026Uruguay 0-1 Spain· FIFA World Cup· neutral
  2. 2013Spain 2-1 Uruguay· Confederations Cup· neutral
  3. 2013Spain 3-1 Uruguay· Friendly· neutral
  4. 2005Spain 2-0 Uruguay· Friendly
  5. 1995Spain 2-2 Uruguay· Friendly

source · international results feed

How we got hereWe make Spain the stronger side, and seal the call at about 6 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Uruguay rating edge-255
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge-255

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -255 edge into 15% / 21% / 64% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Uruguay

0.8

expected goals

Spain

1.8

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 0–112 in 100
  • 1–112 in 100
  • 0–211 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 1–210 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Uruguay 17 in 100, Spain 43 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Spain win on the road.✓ right
  • Spain win comfortably, by two goals or more.✗ wrong
  • Spain keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.✓ right

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Uruguay4-2-3-1

  1. 23Fernando MusleraG1710
  2. 13Guillermo VarelaD1845
  3. 3Sebastián CáceresD1592
  4. 16Mathías OliveraD1886
  5. 25Juan SanabriaD1583
  6. 6Rodrigo BentancurM1874
  7. 5Manuel UgarteM1933
  8. 14Agustín CanobbioM1863
  9. 8Federico ValverdeM1998
  10. 20Maximiliano AraújoM1883
  11. 9Darwin NúñezF1706

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Spain4-3-3

  1. 23Unai SimónG1829
  2. 5Marcos LlorenteD1874
  3. 22Pau CubarsíD2035
  4. 14Aymeric LaporteD1843
  5. 24Marc CucurellaD1918
  6. 20PedriM2049
  7. 16RodriM2038
  8. 6Mikel MerinoM2113
  9. 19Lamine YamalF2107
  10. 21Mikel OyarzabalF1869
  11. 15Alex BaenaF1870

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Fri, 26 Jun 2026 23:20:51 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 42'A. Baenagoalassist M. Llorente
  2. 45'N. de la Cruz for M. Ugartesub
  3. 46'S. Rochet for F. Muslerasub
  4. 57'F. Vinas for F. Valverdesub
  5. 60'F. Ruiz for Pedrisub
  6. 60'D. Olmo for M. Merinosub
  7. 66'Y. Pino for A. Baenasub
  8. 70'B. Rodriguez for J. Sanabriasub
  9. 76'N. Williams for Lamine Yamalsub
  10. 76'F. Torres for M. Oyarzabalsub

source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 27 Jun 2026 02:22:51 GMT

Full time

Called it.

Uruguay 0-1 Spain

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
2/3

The debrief

We sealed Spain to win at 64%, about 6 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Uruguay 0-1 Spain: the Spain win, an outcome we had at 64 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • Spain win comfortably, by two goals or more.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Uruguay -10 and Spain +10.

On our player board, the squads moved Uruguay -62 (15 appearances) · Spain +43 (16 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -255 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 15/21/64 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Spain · 64%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Uruguay v Spain before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.