Manuel Ugarte

Sourced facts, dated and on the record. Squad membership, and his club when a source names one. Nothing invented; we don’t make players up.

At a glance

age
24
sourced with the squad
position
Midfield
Uruguay
our board
#94
of 1424 rated players
folded so far
2203′
38 appearances
transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers
25.00
98th percentile of peers

Sourced

squad: Uruguay · Midfieldfootball-data.org · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches a call.

Our rating · the working

the board →

1974 ±45

his quality rating: club, age and measured output. The board orders by this plus his World Cup form, less a discount for how much we can measure him.

How the number is builtopenclose

1933 full roster Elo (−41 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

potential ~1936 ±45 a projection, not a measurement: room left on the midfield age curve

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Uruguay's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point: 1931
age curve at 24 (midfields' curve)young-side discount halved, his measured production overrides the average-youngster prior: -3
transfer market value, a sourced market-consensus quality prior (the stronger reading for him here)his percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons: +47
quality rating · club, age + measured output: 1974
form: national-team results, 38 appearances2203 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI: -41
full roster Elo · with results: 1933

Where the +47 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured: 25.00 transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers
his rank: 98th percentile of qualified peers
scored from: the CC0 Transfermarkt community mirror; a market-consensus quality prior, taken at a capped weight where it reads a player higher than our (fixed, partial) shot/event data can
the arithmetic: 46 pts/σ × z(97.9th) = 46 × 2.03 × 0.5 (position weight) = +47

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-27. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

The notebook

The lines a beat writer keeps, except every one of ours is read off the ledger above, auditable to the night. Nothing invented.

standing
#94 of 1424 on our board, top 10% of everyone we rate.
vs his seed
The folded nights have cost him 41 points off his seed, kept on the record, like everything.

What he’d cost · our estimate

We don’t price him yet. Our fee model leans on the level he plays at, and no trusted source has given us his club’s strength. We’d rather show nothing than a number we don’t trust.

The fee record · sourced

The market’s last public word: €50m (2024-08). The gap is evidence, many of them, together, recalibrate our model; no single one rewrites him.

2024-08-30Paris Saint Germain → Manchester United€50m
2023-07-07Sporting CP → Paris Saint Germain€60m
2021-08-09Famalicao → Sporting CPundisclosed
2021-01-05Fenix → Famalicao€3m

Reported moves, dated and attributed (api-football.com), news facts, not a valuation site’s estimates. It never touches a call.

In our coverage · Uruguay’s record

v Spain0–1Called it
v Cape Verde2–2Missed it
at Saudi Arabia1–1Missed it

The newsroom’s calls on Uruguay. Team-level, never dressed up as a player stat.