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World Cup 2026by ProofXIReceipts
Fri 10 Jul · 19:00 UTC · 21:00 CEST

full time

Spain2–1Belgium

2322+112rating2035+1092ndfifa9th

Called it. As forecast.

Spain to win

home 57% ✓draw 23%away 20%

sealed Wed 8 Jul · 19:14 UTC · 21:14 CEST · nothing deleted

Called

Frequencies, not a market line.

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Wed, 08 Jul 2026 19:14:55 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

share the cardstorysquarefeedwide cardoutlook slide

The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Spain

ProofXI rating

2322+112 this year

2210 → 2322 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

2ndheld on the latest list

1st → 2nd · 6 lists

Belgium

ProofXI rating

2035+109 this year

1926 → 2035 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

9thheld on the latest list

8th → 9th · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Spain by 287 points

Head to head

Spain have had the better of this fixture.

22 prior meetings · Spain 11, drawn 6, Belgium 5 · goals 44-22

  1. 2016Belgium 0-2 Spain· Friendly
  2. 2009Spain 5-0 Belgium· FIFA World Cup qualification
  3. 2008Belgium 1-2 Spain· FIFA World Cup qualification
  4. 2005Belgium 0-2 Spain· FIFA World Cup qualification
  5. 2004Spain 2-0 Belgium· FIFA World Cup qualification

source · international results feed

How we got hereWe make Spain the stronger side, and seal the call at about 6 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Spain rating edge+185
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge+185

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +185 edge into 57% / 23% / 20% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Spain

1.6

expected goals

Belgium

1.0

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–112 in 100
  • 1–011 in 100
  • 2–010 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 2–110 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Spain 38 in 100, Belgium 19 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Spain win at home.✓ right
  • Spain win comfortably, by two goals or more.✗ wrong
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Spain4-2-3-1

  1. 23Unai SimónG1766
  2. 12Pedro PorroD1958
  3. 22Pau CubarsíD2123
  4. 14Aymeric LaporteD1801
  5. 24Marc CucurellaD2002
  6. 16RodriM2337
  7. 8Fabián RuizM2061
  8. 19Lamine YamalM2242
  9. 10Dani OlmoM2159
  10. 15Alex BaenaM1950
  11. 21Mikel OyarzabalF1945

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Belgium4-2-3-1

  1. 1Thibaut CourtoisG2080
  2. 21Timothy CastagneD1950
  3. 25Nathan NgoyD~1846 provisional
  4. 4Brandon MecheleD1925
  5. 5Maxim De CuyperD1929
  6. 8Youri TielemansM2246
  7. 23Nicolas RaskinM~1722 provisional
  8. 10Leandro TrossardM2208
  9. 7Kevin De BruyneM2072
  10. 11Jérémy DokuM2193
  11. 17Charles De KetelaereF1968

9 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Fri, 10 Jul 2026 18:22:24 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 30'F. Ruizgoal
  2. 41'C. De Ketelaeregoalassist T. Castagne
  3. 55'F. Torres for A. Baenasub
  4. 55'Pedri for F. Ruizsub
  5. 60'A. Witsel for L. Trossardsub
  6. 60'R. Lukaku for H. Vanakensub
  7. 61'J. Seys for M. De Cuypersub
  8. 71'S. Lammens for T. Courtoissub
  9. 79'N. Williams for M. Oyarzabalsub
  10. 86'A. Saelemaekers for K. De Bruynesub
  11. 86'M. Merino for D. Olmosub
  12. 88'M. Merinogoal

source: api-football.com · fetched Fri, 10 Jul 2026 20:52:15 GMT

Full time

Called it.

Spain 2-1 Belgium

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
2/3

The debrief

We sealed Spain to win at 57%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Spain 2-1 Belgium: the Spain win, an outcome we had at 57 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • Spain win comfortably, by two goals or more.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Spain +15 and Belgium -15.

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +185 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 57/23/20 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Spain · 57%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Spain v Belgium before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.