full time
Colombia0–0Portugal
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami · 64,767 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Colombia to win
sealed Thu 25 Jun · 19:49 UTC · 21:49 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Thu, 25 Jun 2026 19:49:29 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2055+27 this year
2028 → 2055 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
13thheld on the latest list
13th → 13th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
2024-11 this year
2035 → 2024 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
5thheld on the latest list
6th → 5th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Colombia by 31 points
How we got hereWe make Colombia the stronger side, and seal the call at about 4 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +50 edge into 42% / 26% / 32% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Colombia
1.4
expected goals
Portugal
1.2
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 1–010 in 100
- 2–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 0–18 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Colombia 30 in 100, Portugal 25 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Colombia win at home.✗ wrong
- No blowout: Colombia win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Colombia4-3-3
- 12Camilo VargasG1578
- 4Santiago AriasD1624
- 23Davinson SánchezD1792
- 3Jhon LucumíD1735
- 22Deiver MachadoD1652
- 14Gustavo PuertaM1673
- 16Jefferson LermaM1816
- 11Jhon AriasM1882
- 10James RodríguezF1536
- 9Jhon CórdobaF1596
- 7Luis DíazF2064
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1David OspinaG~1821 provisional
- 24Álvaro MonteroG1611
- 17Johan MojicaD1730
- 18Willer DittaD1836
- 13Yerry MinaD1733
- 26Andrés GómezF1726
- 2Daniel MuñozD1885
- 21Jaminton CampazM1768
- 8Jorge CarrascalM1924
- 20Juan Fernando QuinteroM1786
- 15Juan PortillaM1848
- 5Kevin CastañoM1840
- 6Richard RíosM1876
- 19Cucho HernándezF1931
- 25Luis Javier SuárezF2016
Portugal4-2-3-1
- 1Diogo CostaG1892
- 20João CanceloD2040
- 3Rúben DiasD2107
- 13Renato VeigaD1773
- 25Nuno MendesD2090
- 21Rúben NevesM1717
- 23VitinhaM2002
- 18Pedro NetoM1920
- 8Bruno FernandesM2125
- 11João FélixM1938
- 7Cristiano RonaldoF1778
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12José SáG1711
- 22Rui SilvaG1917
- 5Diogo DalotD2016
- 14Gonçalo InácioD1948
- 6Matheus NunesM2061
- 2Nélson SemedoD1784
- 4Tomás AraújoD1885
- 10Bernardo SilvaM2101
- 16Francisco TrincãoF1917
- 19Gonçalo GuedesF1834
- 15João NevesM2038
- 24Samú CostaM1782
- 26Francisco ConceiçãoF1880
- 9Gonçalo RamosF1999
- 17Rafael LeãoF1888
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 27 Jun 2026 22:58:52 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 46'J. Neves for R. Nevessub
- 46'D. Dalot for J. Cancelosub
- 60'R. Rios for J. Lermasub
- 60'L. Suarez for J. Cordobasub
- 70'R. Leao for Joao Felixsub
- 70'Samu Costa for Vitinhasub
- 76'K. Castano for J. Ariassub
- 76'J. Quintero for J. Rodriguezsub
- 87'D. Munoz for S. Ariassub
- 90+3'M. Nunes for N. Mendessub
source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 28 Jun 2026 01:31:29 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Colombia 0-0 Portugal
- Verdict
- wrong and wrong
- Claims right
- 1/3
The debrief
We sealed Colombia to win at 42%, about 4 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Colombia 0-0 Portugal: the draw, an outcome we had at 26 in 100.
The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 1 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Colombia win at home.
- An open game in which both teams find the net.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Colombia -4 and Portugal +4.
On our player board, the squads moved Colombia +32 (16 appearances) · Portugal -18 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +50 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 42/26/32 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Colombia · 42%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Colombia v Portugal before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.