Jhon Arias

1882 full roster Elo (+13 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

at or near his peak, no projected upside from age

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Colombia's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point

1855

age curve at 28 (midfields' curve)measured from the open archive by our own study (defenders: the published literature's shape), never fitted to our calls

-7

attacking output in club football, our xG modelhis percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons

+20

quality rating · club, age + measured output

1869

form: national-team results, 52 appearances3172 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI

+13

full roster Elo · with results

1882

Where the +20 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured

0.23 npxG per 90

his rank

81th percentile of qualified peers

scored from

recent club seasons, every shot scored by our own xG model

the arithmetic

46 pts/σ × z(81.2th) = 46 × 0.89 × 0.5 (position weight) = +20

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-27. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill

€8m

club tier 1810the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays

×2.86

ageage 28, past the fee-peak, value falls ~18% a year

×0.82

midfielder fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts

×0.90

individual skillmeasured 81th percentile of peers

×1.30

our estimate

≈ €21m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.