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Tue 16 Jun · 19:00 UTC · 21:00 CEST · Group I

full time

France3–1Senegal

2139+43rating1920+463rddown 2fifa15thdown 1
W. Saliba2162talismanN. Jackson2037

MetLife Stadium, New York/New Jersey · 82,500 seats

Called it. As forecast.

France to win

home 59% ✓draw 23%away 18%

sealed Fri 12 Jun · 10:06 UTC · 12:06 CEST · nothing deleted

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Fri, 12 Jun 2026 10:06:53 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v1

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The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

France

ProofXI rating

2139+43 this year

2096 → 2139 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

3rddown 2 places on the latest list

3rd → 3rd · 6 lists

Senegal

ProofXI rating

1920+46 this year

1874 → 1920 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

15thdown 1 place on the latest list

19th → 15th · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: France by 219 points

Head to head

Senegal have had the better of this fixture.

2 prior meetings · France 0, drawn 0, Senegal 2 · goals 0-3

  1. 2002France 0-1 Senegal· FIFA World Cup· neutral
  2. 1963Senegal 2-0 France· African Friendship Games

source · international results feed

How we got hereWe make France the stronger side, and seal the call at about 6 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

France rating edge+208
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge+208

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +208 edge into 59% / 23% / 18% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

France

1.7

expected goals

Senegal

0.9

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–112 in 100
  • 1–012 in 100
  • 2–010 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 2–110 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: France 40 in 100, Senegal 19 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • France win at home.✓ right
  • France win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

France4-2-3-1

  1. 16Mike MaignanG1881
  2. 5Jules KoundéD2072
  3. 17William SalibaD2162
  4. 4Dayot UpamecanoD2110
  5. 19Theo HernándezD1717
  6. 8Aurélien TchouaméniM2055
  7. 14Adrien RabiotM1889
  8. 11Michael OliseM2123
  9. 7Ousmane DembéléM2157
  10. 20Désiré DouéM2139
  11. 10Kylian MbappéF2106

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Senegal4-3-3

  1. 16Edouard MendyG1654
  2. 15Krépin DiattaD1786
  3. 3Kalidou KoulibalyD1626
  4. 19Moussa NiakhatéD1776
  5. 25El Hadji Malick DioufD1807
  6. 8Lamine CamaraM1824
  7. 5Idrissa Gana GueyeM1775
  8. 26Pape GueyeM1788
  9. 18Ismaïla SarrF1876
  10. 11Nicolas JacksonF2037
  11. 10Sadio ManéF1877

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 16 Jun 2026 18:00:09 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 66'K. Mbappegoalassist M. Olise
  2. 75'I. Mbaye for I. Sarrsub
  3. 76'H. Diarra for L. Camarasub
  4. 80'B. Barcola for O. Dembelesub
  5. 82'B. Barcolagoalassist A. Rabiot
  6. 83'I. Ndiaye for P. Gueyesub
  7. 83'B. Dieng for N. Jacksonsub
  8. 87'R. Cherki for D. Douesub
  9. 88'P. Ciss for I. Gueyesub
  10. 90+5'I. Mbayegoalassist I. Ndiaye
  11. 90+6'K. Mbappegoal

source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 16 Jun 2026 21:11:28 GMT

Full time

Called it.

France 3-1 Senegal

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
3/3

The debrief

We sealed France to win at 59%, about 6 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said France 3-1 Senegal: the France win, an outcome we had at 59 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 3 of 3.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved France +21 and Senegal -21.

On our player board, the squads moved France +82 (13 appearances) · Senegal -89 (16 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +208 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 59/23/18 (home/draw/away).Favourite: France · 59%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked France v Senegal before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.