Idrissa Gana Guèye

1775 full roster Elo (+4 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

at or near his peak, no projected upside from age

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Senegal's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point

1818

age curve at 36 (midfields' curve)measured from the open archive by our own study (defenders: the published literature's shape), never fitted to our calls

-43

attacking output in club football, our xG modelhis percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons

-4

quality rating · club, age + measured output

1771

form: national-team results, 20 appearances1567 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI

+4

full roster Elo · with results

1775

Where the -4 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured

0.06 npxG per 90

his rank

44th percentile of qualified peers

scored from

recent club seasons, every shot scored by our own xG model

the arithmetic

46 pts/σ × z(43.7th) = 46 × -0.16 × 0.5 (position weight) = -4

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-26. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.