full time
Netherlands2–2Japan
AT&T Stadium, Dallas · 80,000 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Netherlands to win
sealed Thu 11 Jun · 18:54 UTC · 20:54 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Thu, 11 Jun 2026 18:54:02 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v1
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2023-3 this year
2026 → 2023 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
8thdown 1 place on the latest list
7th → 8th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1993+13 this year
1980 → 1993 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
18thheld on the latest list
18th → 18th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Netherlands by 30 points
Head to head
Netherlands have had the better of this fixture.
3 prior meetings · Netherlands 2, drawn 1, Japan 0 · goals 6-2
- 2013Netherlands 2-2 Japan· Friendly· neutral
- 2010Netherlands 1-0 Japan· FIFA World Cup· neutral
- 2009Netherlands 3-0 Japan· Friendly
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Netherlands the stronger side, and seal the call at about 4 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +19 edge into 39% / 26% / 35% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Netherlands
1.3
expected goals
Japan
1.3
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 1–09 in 100
- 0–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–18 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Netherlands 28 in 100, Japan 26 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Netherlands win at home.✗ wrong
- No blowout: Netherlands win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Netherlands4-3-3
- 1Bart VerbruggenG1935
- 22Denzel DumfriesD2012
- 6Jan Paul van HeckeD1958
- 4Virgil van DijkD1965
- 15Micky van de VenD1827
- 8Ryan GravenberchM1978
- 21Frenkie de JongM2036
- 14Tijjani ReijndersM2071
- 24Crysencio SummervilleF1905
- 18Donyell MalenF2046
- 11Cody GakpoF1978
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 23Mark FlekkenG1943
- 13Robin RoefsG1922
- 25Jorrel HatoD1874
- 2Lutsharel GeertruidaDunrated
- 12Mats WiefferM1935
- 5Nathan AkéD2024
- 16Guus TilM1904
- 3Marten de RoonM1831
- 7Justin KluivertF1944
- 26Quinten TimberM1813
- 20Teun KoopmeinersM1863
- 19Brian BrobbeyF1898
- 10Memphis DepayF1884
- 9Wout WeghorstF1691
- 17Noa LangF1806
Japan3-4-2-1
- 1Zion SuzukiG1671
- 16Tsuyoshi WatanabeD1672
- 3Shogo TaniguchiD1691
- 21Hiroki ItōD2007
- 10Ritsu DoanM1775
- 24Kaishu SanoM1763
- 15Daichi KamadaM1877
- 13Keito NakamuraM1673
- 8Takefusa KuboF1761
- 11Daizen MaedaF1636
- 18Ayase UedaF1704
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Keisuke OsakoG~1607 provisional
- 23Tomoki HayakawaG1607
- 20Ayumu SekoD1685
- 4Ko ItakuraD1695
- 25Junnosuke SuzukiD1674
- 2Yukinari SugawaraD1668
- 22Takehiro TomiyasuD1689
- 5Yuto NagatomoD1570
- 7Ao TanakaM1900
- 17Yuito SuzukiM1742
- 14Junya ItoF1683
- 9Keisuke GotoF1685
- 19Koki OgawaF1666
- 26Kento ShiogaiF1660
- 6Shuto MachinoFunrated
source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 14 Jun 2026 20:02:41 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 51'V. van Dijkgoalassist R. Gravenberch
- 57'K. Nakamuragoalassist T. Kubo
- 64'C. Summervillegoalassist R. Gravenberch
- 66'J. Ito for D. Maedasub
- 70'M. Depay for D. Malensub
- 70'T. Koopmeiners for C. Summervillesub
- 70'Q. Timber for T. Reijnderssub
- 75'T. Tomiyasu for T. Watanabesub
- 75'K. Ogawa for T. Kubosub
- 75'Y. Sugawara for R. Doansub
- 81'N. Ake for R. Gravenberchsub
- 84'K. Shiogai for A. Uedasub
- 85'B. Brobbey for C. Gakposub
- 88'D. Kamadagoalassist K. Ogawa
source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 14 Jun 2026 22:14:25 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Netherlands 2-2 Japan
- Verdict
- wrong but well reasoned
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Netherlands to win at 39%, about 4 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Netherlands 2-2 Japan: the draw, an outcome we had at 26 in 100.
The call missed, but the reasoning mostly held. That is what a probability is, the chance we sealed for what happened is exactly how often this should hurt. It stays up. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Netherlands win at home.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Netherlands -2 and Japan +2.
On our player board, the squads moved Netherlands -21 (16 appearances) · Japan +26 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +19 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 39/26/35 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Netherlands · 39%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Netherlands v Japan before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.