Denzel Dumfries

2012 full roster Elo (+38 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

at or near his peak, no projected upside from age

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Netherlands's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point

1937

age curve at 29 (defences' curve)the position's measured peak, no discount either way

+0

transfer market value, a sourced market-consensus quality prior (the stronger reading for him here)his percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons

+37

quality rating · club, age + measured output

1974

form: national-team results, 38 appearances3075 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI

+38

full roster Elo · with results

2012

Where the +37 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured

25.00 transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers

his rank

98th percentile of qualified peers

scored from

the CC0 Transfermarkt community mirror; a market-consensus quality prior, taken at a capped weight where it reads a player higher than our (fixed, partial) shot/event data can

the arithmetic

46 pts/σ × z(97.9th) = 46 × 2.03 × 0.4 (position weight) = +37

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-25. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill

€8m

club tier 1889the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays

×4.24

ageage 29, past the fee-peak, value falls ~18% a year

×0.67

defender fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts

×0.58

individual skillour xG model has no confident read on him, priced on club, age and role only, so the band is wide

×1.00

our estimate

≈ €13m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.